“The Prespa agreement is still a tough pill to swallow for many Macedonians and Greeks. The publics in both countries are divided over the outcomes and prospects of the Prespa agreement,” has said Ivan Damjanovski, associate professor at the Political Science Department, Faculty of Law, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, and affiliated researcher at the Institute for Democracy 'Societas Civilis’ – Skopje.

In an exclusive interview via email, Albanian Daily News asked him on a survey of the results of the Prespa Agreement between North Macedonia and Greece on the occasion of its three- year anniversary, which were presented on June 16 this year. The survey was conducted by the Institute for Democracy "Societas Civilis" (Skopje) and the public opinion research unit at the University of Macedonia Research Institute and wassupported by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung.

“The implications of the name dispute have touched upon very sensitive issues of ethnic and national identity which amplify the rejectionist attitudes among a significant number of citizens in both countries. Yet, slight majorities in both countries support the Prespa agreement,” said the Professor who, however, paid credit to the continuous investment of the US and other members of the international community in the successful resolution of the name dispute. “As the findings of our survey indicate, a significant number of Macedonians and Greeks believe that the involvement of foreign powers (especially the US and the EU) has been a key factor for the settlement of the name dispute.”

Touching upon the decision of the Bulgarian government not to support the start of the accession negotiations of North Macedonia with the EU, the Professor considered Sofia’s demands outside of the framework of EU conditionality and the spirit of EU’s enlargement strategy with the Western Balkans. According to him, they tackle extremely sensitive questions of Macedonian identity which are non-negotiable for the majority of the Macedonian public.    

Professor Damjanovski wasskeptical about the prospects of a positive decision in July despite an intensive diplomatic activity to unlock the EU accession process spearheaded by the Portuguese Presidency.

In the meantime, he was of the opinion that if this new bilateral dispute between North Macedonia and Bulgaria is prolonged in the distant future, it is quite possible for Albania to go its own way along the accession process. “Such a scenario is quite possible,” Damjanovski said, adding that, however, at the moment the decoupling is not very plausible due to firm opposition for such a scenario from several EU Member States.  

Asked about the old scheme of a land swap between Kosovo and Serbia as part of the solution of their conflict, the North Macedonian researcher was cut and sharp saying: â€œI personally vehemently oppose solutions that propose exchanges of territory or any type of modification of borders. Such a solution would have a domino effect all over the region and could potentially open a Pandora's box of conflicts and demands for territorial gains.”  

Speaking of the bilateral relations between Albania and North Macedonia he evaluated them as excellent continuously improving. Of course, according to him, there is always room for improvement, and in his opinion, the economic exchange between the two countries has a much higher ceiling and cooperation within the civil society sector is still low. Regarding the role of political parties of the ethnic Albanians in North Macedonia he said that they have always been a significant part of almost every government since independence. “North Macedonia has a power sharing model which is based on inter-ethnic coalitions, so a government without ethnic Albanian representatives is almost inconceivable,” he said.

Professor Ivan Damjanovski was on holiday with his family on the Albanian coast for the first time last summer. “I can say that I was pleasantly surprised with the infrastructure and the overall development of the tourist sector. As Albania was one of a handful of destinations open to Macedonian tourists last summer, many Macedonians spent their holidays in Albania. This was a very good opportunity for showcasing Albania as a summer holiday destination and the overall impression has been very positive. I’m sure that the number of tourists from both countries will exponentially grow in the upcoming period,” said Ivan Damjanovski in the following interview:  

Albanian Daily News: A poll on the relations between North Macedonia and Greece on the occasion of the three- year anniversary of the Prespa Agreement has been conducted by the Institute for Democracy "Societas Civilis" (Skopje) and the public opinion research unit at the University of Macedonia Research Institute. Congratulations as you were part of it; its results were presented on June 16 this year on the eve of the anniversary of the Prespa accord. Please, could you share with us some of the main points of the findings?

Professor Ivan Damjanovski: Well, the results of the survey which was supported by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung demonstrate that three years after its signing, the Prespa agreement is still a tough pill to swallow for many Macedonians and Greeks. The publics in both countries are divided over the outcomes and prospects of the Prespa agreement. The implications of the name dispute have touched upon very sensitive issues of ethnic and national identity which amplify the rejectionist attitudes among a significant number of citizens in both countries. Yet, slight majorities in both countries support the Prespa agreement. 

 - As a follow up, Professor, how would you assess the mood of the Macedonian and Greek people on the basis of the findings of the poll conducted by you?

- Despite the above-mentioned divisions of the public opinion in both countries, there are instances where both publics share similar (in some cases almost identical) perceptions on the way forward. Majorities in both countries see the Prespa agreement as a compromise that had to be made and acknowledge the importance of the resolution of the name dispute for the improvement of the bilateral relations between the two countries.

- I have learned from the media that the Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Philip T. Reeker will travel to North Macedonia to be in Ohrid to attend the "Road to Prespa" Conference on July 1. How do you see this act and secondly, do you think that the agreement can be a model to be followed in other regional disputes?

- It is another testament of the continuous investment of the US and other members of the international community in the successful resolution of the name dispute. Although the negotiations that resulted with the Prespa agreement were bilateral in their nature, I doubt that they would have been successful without the pressure from the external actors that were involved in the facilitation of the negotiations. This is acknowledged by both publics in Greece and North Macedonia.

As the findings of our survey indicate, a significant number of Macedonians and Greeks believe that the involvement of foreign powers (especially the US and the EU) has been a key factor for the settlement of the name dispute. In a similar manner, both publics believe that the Prespa agreement has strengthened peace and stability in the region. In this sense, the agreement is a good example of peaceful and constructive settlement of a long-lasting conflict. However, whether it can be projected as a blueprint for the solution for other regional conflicts remains to be seen.

- In this frame, which is your assessment on the North Macedonia- Bulgaria dispute and which are the main obstacles preventing an agreement now because as far as I know the two countries had earlier been close to finding a solution to the contradictions?

- The decision of the Bulgarian government not to support the start of the accession negotiations with the EU has seriously damaged the trust and the bilateral relations between the two countries. Bulgaria’s demands are outside of the framework of EU conditionality and the spirit of EU’s enlargement strategy with the Western Balkans. They tackle extremely sensitive questions of Macedonian identity which are non-negotiable for the majority of the Macedonian public.    

 - Mr. Damjanovski, Bulgaria is using its veto preventing the opening of the intergovernmental talks with the EU of North Macedonia. How do you assess this stance, and secondly do you think that diplomacy will work to unfreeze the situation to make possible a positive decision by the EU authorities?

- There has been an intensive diplomatic activity to unlock the accession process spearheaded by the Portuguese Presidency. However, I am skeptical about the prospects of a positive decision in July. The latest attempt of Prime Minister Zaev to unlock the process during his visit to Sofia was not very fruitful and there is also the question of the legitimacy of the current Bulgarian technical government to undertake decisions of such political magnitude.

- Albania and North Macedonia’s bids for EU membership have so far been coupled, with both nations preparing for negotiations to begin in parallel. But with North Macedonia’s EU bid currently blocked by Bulgaria, Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi has now hinted that Albania could go its own way.  So, a formal “decoupling” is being seen as an option. Seeing things from Skopje’s perspective, how do you assess this eventual move?

- If this new bilateral dispute between North Macedonia and yet another neighboring EU country is prolonged in the distant future, such a scenario is quite possible.  However, at the moment the decoupling is not very plausible due to firm opposition for such a scenario from several EU Member States.

- As we are talking about the two countries in the frame of the EU, let me touch upon the bilateral relations between them. What do you think of the current framework of bilateral ties? As a specialist but also as a citizen do you see more space for closer cooperation and exchanges between the two countries? And is in any way helpful the fact that Albanian population has their representatives in Zaev’s government?

- The bilateral relations between Albania and North Macedonia are excellent and have been continuously improving. Of course, there is always room for improvement. In my opinion, the economic exchange between the two countries has a much higher ceiling and cooperation within the civil society sector is still low. Regarding the last sub-question, this is not the case only for Zaev’s government. Political parties of the ethnic Albanians in North Macedonia have always been a significant part of almost every government since independence. North Macedonia has a power sharing model which is based on inter-ethnic coalitions, so a government without ethnic Albanian representatives is almost inconceivable.

- Let me turn, Professor, to the endless Pristina-Belgrade dialogue. As Serbian highest officials repeat on every occasion saying they would never recognize Kosovo, do you think the current format of the dialogue is inefficient, and as things keep deteriorating do you fear the threat of an escalation of hostilities which could compromise the entire situation in the Western Balkans? Is the old scheme of a land swap one of the solutions?   

- I personally vehemently oppose solutions that propose exchanges of territory or any type of modification of borders. Such a solution would have a domino effect all over the region and could potentially open a Pandora's box of conflicts and demands for territorial gains. As the resolution of the name dispute has demonstrated, it takes heavily invested domestic political elites and external pressure to reach hard compromises. Sadly, both factors are missing in the current state of affairs in the Serbia-Kosovo dialogue. However, that does not mean that it will be impossible to reach a compromise in the future. If the external incentives are high enough (like membership in the EU), a mutually agreeable solution is possible.

- It would be a pleasure to know if you have ever been in Albania and could tourism become a means for bringing the two people closer to each other?

- Last summer, I went on holiday with my family on the Albanian coast for the first time. I can say that I was pleasantly surprised with the infrastructure and the overall development of the tourist sector. As Albania was one of a handful of destinations open to Macedonian tourists last summer, many Macedonians spent their holidays in Albania. This was a very good opportunity for showcasing Albania as a summer holiday destination and the overall impression has been very positive. I’m sure that the number of tourists from both countries will exponentially grow in the upcoming period.

-To conclude, Professor, it would be interesting to know your opinion on US President’s tour in Europe, its results and do you think he could convince the EU and NATO allies on the establishment of a front against Russia and particularly against China, which was called ‘systemic challenge’?

- Well, the tour definitely helped to repair the strained relations between the US and some of its European allies. He managed to rally some support for his policy on China and convinced some of the European partners to start looking at China as a potential threat whose economic influence could have negative long-term effects. However, some key European allies continue to see China more as an important trade partner, rather than a rival.