The beginning of the transition found Albania at the best demographic moment in its history. In 1991, there were 82,000 births and 17.700 deaths in the country. The natural increase of the population (the difference between births and deaths in a year) in 1991 was almost 64.000 people. The trend had been steadily increasing since the 1960s. 

After 1991, the natural increase of the population began to shrink rapidly. The main reason was emigration, which gradually shrunk the population, combined with lifestyle changes, such as marriages at a later age, having fewer children, or even increasing divorces. 

International institutions estimate that about 40% of the country's population currently lives outside Albania, mainly in Italy, Greece, other European countries, USA, etc. After the fading of the new first cycle of emigration in the early ’90s, the trend was revived again after 2016, ascertained by the increase in the number of asylum applications. In the second wave of emigration, mainly young people are leaving, but also families. 

According to INSTAT, in 1990 there were about 29.000 marriages, while in 2019, their number was about 22.000. In the same period, divorces increased from 2600 to almost 6000. The number of divorces per 100 marriages reached a record of 26.1 in 2019, with one-fifth of couples separating (in 2020 both marriages and divorces fell, but the behavior was not normal due to limitations affected by the pandemic). 

The decline in the number of births year after year has worsened the quality of generational replacement. The Synthetic Fertility Index (ISF), which shows the average number of children a woman of childbearing age is expected to give birth to, marks 1.34 children by 2020, up from 1.36 in 2019, one of the lowest rates in Europe. In 2001, according to INSTAT, this indicator was 2.1, while in the 1970s it was over 5. 

As a result of these developments, the median age of the population (which separates the younger half from the older one) increased to 37.6 years in 2021, from 32.6 years in 2011, while before the ’90s it was about 27 years. However, even at these levels, Albania continues to remain a young population (median in Europe is over 40 years old). 

Covid delivered the final blow, for the first time in history the natural increase was negative in 2021 

Population aging was bringing about a gradual increase in deaths in the country as births were shrinking, narrowing the natural increase of the population, which was gradually moving towards zero. 

Covid-19 only accelerated this trend. After the outbreak of the pandemic in March 2020, the consequences were severe on the health of the population and mortality increased rapidly. 

For the whole of 2021, the country recorded a total of about 30.600 (30,580) loss of life, marking the highest record level ever achieved in the history of the country. This is the second year in a row when fatalities in the country are proving high. In the first year of the pandemic, in 2020 a total of 27.600 fatalities were registered, from 21.800 which was the average of the period 2016-2019. 

Compared to the 2016-2019 average, when it was a normal period, deaths in 2021 have increased by 40%. Even in 2020, additional mortality compared to the 2016-2019 average increased by about 26%. 

In contrast, the pandemic negatively affected family planning and the increase in miscarriages (affected by the consequences of the pandemic on the health of pregnant women), leading to declining fertility. 

In 2020 there were only 470 births more than deaths, while in 2021, for the first time in history almost 3.300 deaths more than births were recorded. 

According to the latest INSTAT data, the resident population of Albania at the beginning of 2021 was about 2.83 million people, but it will be the next census, which will show the real numbers of people who have remained in Albania.

(Souce: Monitor)