Challenges in a Polarized Montenegro

“Considering the result of the election, the majority in Montenegro celebrated, but it remains to be seen the further dynamics of reforms after the parliamentary elections in June and how this will affect the situation in the country,” has said Jovana Marovic, political expert on EU affairs and former Deputy Prime Minister of Montenegro in an exclusive interview with Albanian Daily News.

Asked about what will be new in Milatovic’s ‘plan of action’ on the country's EU accession process as compared to the previous platform, Marovic, a former Minister of European Affairs and an expert as her entire professional and academic career is devoted to the European integration process of Montenegro and the Western Balkans, was cautious saying it remains to be seen how realistic this scenario is, having in mind the complicated tasks on the way to the EU, as well as the potential reform capacity of the Government that will be formed after the June elections.

Referring to comments considering thePresident-elect as pro-Serb the former Minister said that thereare many doubts and concerns both in Montenegro and abroad, but in accordance with the announcements already made by Milatovic, there will be no shifts in country’s foreign policy. “Relations with Serbia are an important issue and a prerequisite for regional cooperation and good neighborly relations, but interference in the internal affairs of the state is something that no one wants.”

Regarding the issue of the Open Balkans initiative, which Serbia insists on, remains open, but she hoped that would not be a priority, because, as the analysis of the Ministry of European Affairs showed, there is no reason to consider this issue at all at this moment.

Touching upon the promise of the new head of state to eradicate corruption and organized crime, Marovic said Montenegro is deeply polarized and overcoming it requires the involvement and activity of all actors. “It is positive that now campaigns and media appearances will not be based on the fight against Djukanovic, who captured the state for more than 30 years, but everyone has to focus on reforms and real problems outside the matrix of identity issues.”  

According to her, whoever becomes the President of Montenegro is aware that international obligations cannot be ignored, that membership in the EU, which is country’s primary goal, also implies a certain foreign policy course, and that a different policy will encounter resistance from international partners.

Asked about EU mediated Pristina-Belgrade dialogue and the unsigned deal of Ohrid meeting between PM Kurti and President Vucic, Marovic said the way in which the agreement was communicated to the public is problematic, and this is where she saw the responsibility of the European Union the most. According to her, it should be clear about what is written in the agreement and what it specifically means.

“The recognition of Kosovo by Serbia is the only way forward for the entire region, but with the protection of the rights of Serbs in Kosovo and the protection of their cultural heritage,” said Jovana Marovic, former Deputy Prime Minister of Montenegro in the following interview:

Albanian Daily News: In the first place thank you, Ms. Marovic, for this opportunity to share opinions with you a few days after Montenegro has a new president, Jakov Milatovic, who succeeds Milo Djukanovic who was in power for more than three decades. First of all, what is the significance of this power change and how has this important event been received in the country?

Ex- PM of Montenegro Jovana Marovic: The victory of Jakov Milatovic has a more symbolic character as the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) was defeated in the parliamentary elections in August 2020 and since then this party has gradually lost voter support, which is also reflected in the results of the local elections held since then. So the change took place almost three years ago and citizens had time to get used to it. When I say that the defeat of Djukanovic has a symbolic character, I mean that he will not hold any official position in the coming period, which should contribute to certain party changes in the DPS itself, and some are already visible in the form of his resignation as party president, and it is to be expected that there will be even more radical changes. Considering the result of the election, the majority in Montenegro celebrated, but it remains to be seen the further dynamics of reforms after the parliamentary elections in June and how this will affect the situation in the country.

- The new president has pledged to speed up Montenegro’s bid for membership to the European Union and to adhere to the bloc’s policy line toward Russia over its invasion of Ukraine targets, which were also first priority of the outgoing president and the government. What is expected to be new in Milatovic’s ‘plan of action’ on the country’s EU accession process as compared to the previous platform?

- Taking into account the limited competences of the state president and the fact that he has no influence on the public policy development, these promises are at the level of principles that the party Milatovic comes from should stand for. Again, it remains to be seen how realistic this scenario is, having in mind the complicated tasks on the way to the EU, as well as the potential reform capacity of the Government that will be formed after the June elections, since, judging by the announcements, some right-wing parties will also participate in it which is not encouraging.

- The election results reveal that Milatovic was backed by Montenegro’s governing majority that included pro-Serb and pro-Russian groups (around 60% of votes). In the meantime there have been widespread claims by pro-Western groups in Montenegro and in Serbia that he is a ‘puppet’ of the pro-Russian leadership in Belgrade. As the pro-Serb groups contributed to the victory of the new head of state do they expect or will they push for closer relationship of Montenegro with Serbia? Secondly, how much are large pro-western segments of the population worried over an eventual return to the old days of ‘Serb-Montenegrin brotherhood and friendship’?   

- There are many doubts and concerns both in the country and abroad, but in accordance with the announcements already made by President-elect Milatovic, there will be no shifts in MNE foreign policy. Relations with Serbia are an important issue and a prerequisite for regional cooperation and good neighborly relations, but interference in the internal affairs of the state is something that no one wants.

The issue of the Open Balkans initiative, which Serbia insists on, remains open, but I hope that this will not be a priority, because, as the analysis of the Ministry of European Affairs showed, there is no reason to consider this issue at all at this moment. I also hope that certain unresolved issues between the two countries will come to an end.

- President elect Milatovic was harsh on his predecessor in an interview with AP on April 3, saying “we defeated one of the last dictators in Europe… a symbol of a regime that ruled the country using organized crime and corruption.” Will the new head of state be a unifying leader of all the people of Montenegro, and will he succeed in eradicating corruption and organized crime?

- The country is deeply polarized and overcoming it requires the involvement and activity of all actors. It is positive that now campaigns and media appearances will not be based on the fight against Djukanovic, who captured the state for more than 30 years, but everyone has to focus on reforms and real problems outside the matrix of identity issues.

- In the meantime, what are the predictions regarding any changes to the main guidelines of the foreign policy of Montenegro against the background of a world that is being faced with serious challenges, one of which is the war in Ukraine?

- Whoever becomes the President of Montenegro is aware that international obligations cannot be ignored, that membership in the EU, which is our primary goal, also implies a certain foreign policy course, and that a different policy will encounter resistance from international partners. So, anyone can try to change the foreign policy of Montenegro, but it will not be good for him/her or for the country.

- As it happens at random in almost every country right after the elections the victors boast that everything will be rosy from the moment that they come to power. Do you think that the complex political situation in Montenegro is bound to change fast in face of a significant economic decline, organized crime and corruption, and how would a failure to keep the promise be received by the people?      

- A stable government in Montenegro could deal with most of the problems in the country during one mandate, but I still don't see that in sight.

- Let me touch upon the latest development regarding EU mediated Pristina-Belgrade dialogue and the unsigned deal of Ohrid meeting between PM Kurti and President Vucic. Do you think that it’s a step towards the EU target for full reconciliation between these two countries through its recognition by Serbia?   

- The way in which the agreement is communicated to the public is problematic, and this is where I see the responsibility of the European Union the most: it should be clear about what is written in the agreement and what it specifically means. The recognition of Kosovo by Serbia is the only way forward for the entire region, but with the protection of the rights of Serbs in Kosovo and the protection of their cultural heritage.

- To conclude, Ms. Marovic, the new President of Montenegro stated that the country ‘will not withdraw’ its recognition of Kosovo’s independence. Does it seem that pressure is exerted on the new head of state by pro-Serb groups to withdraw the recognition of Kosovo?

- This is an issue that always comes into focus during the election campaign or shortly after the election since it is part of the infighting between political opponents. I do not expect any changes with or without pressure, because, as I have already mentioned, this is not a step towards a more integrated region and this issue has long since been concluded as far as Montenegro is concerned.