Africa is the continent of great asymmetries. It is the continent with the greatest natural resources, where the poorest peoples in the world live. Sudan is a symbol of this asymmetry. With an area of about 2.5 million km2 of which 129,810 km2 are water, it is divided into 18 provinces and has a population of 46 million inhabitants. About 70% of the inhabitants are Arabs, Nubians, Bejans, etc.., while in the south live the animist Christians, about 13%, and a small part belonging to the African faiths, Dinka, Nuer, etc. Political instability and civil conflicts are the main indicators since the country's independence. From 1899-1955 Sudan was part of Egypt, under British authority. On January 1, 1956, it gained independence from Britain. After independence, tribal cultural contradictions began between the south and the north, accompanied by rivalry between political and military currents. The Naishava Agreement ended the 22-year civil war from 1983 to 2005, which recorded 1.9 million civilian deaths. On July 9, 2011, South Sudan declared independence from the Republic of Sudan, becoming the world's newest state.

   The management of natural resources is one of the main reasons for the struggle for power. Sudan is the richest country on the African continent in agriculture, livestock, fishing, and is even considered one of the richest countries in the world in terms of natural resources, especially coloured minerals. With 110 million cattle, it ranks sixth in the world, while fishing reaches 45,000 tons per year. The mining industry occupies 16% of the surface of Sudan. Sudan has reserves of 1,550 tons of gold, 1,500 tons of silver, 5 million tons of copper and 1.3 million tons of uranium. There are 36 companies from 18 countries of the world, which operate in the field of mining. Gold exports cover nearly 50% of total exports, not counting a large portion that is smuggled mainly to the United Emirates. It produces 80% of the "Arabic gum" in the world, about 120 thousand tons per year, which is used for the production of 180 food, pharmaceutical and chemical products. Sudan also produces 39% of the white sesame and 23% of the red sesame in the world. Oil is another source of income for the country, but after the secession of South Sudan in 2011, Khartoum has lost 75% of its oil production and today produces only about 60,000 barrels per day. 

     The Arab Spring, with the overthrow of the regime of President Omar Al-Bashir in 2019, opened the door to democratization processes, but as in most of the sister countries they failed. A military coup in 2021 overthrew the civilian government. The junta's regime, the return of the military with its asymmetric regional and international alliances, heralds another conflict between two rival factions, the army and the RFS Rapid Intervention Force, a paramilitary militia with religious connotations created by former President Beshir. 

   According to Foreign Policy, the army only through smuggling benefits about 2 billion dollars a year. Already 80% of public revenues are in the hands of the army. RSF militias have also accumulated large sums of money not only through the companies they manage but also from the collection of customs taxes in the border area between Darfur and Libya. Both factions are self-financed and operate outside the state economic-financial system. 

   After the outbreak of the conflict on April 14, the scenarios remain unpredictable. The parties have a significant contingent of troops, the army with about 300,000 and the RFS with 100,000. With these numbers, the conflict will last, but it risks much more than that. With a coastline of 853 km and 7,687 km of land, the conflict in Sudan risks destabilizing the seven states bordering it, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Chad and Libya. Considering the possibility of the conflict spreading to Somalia, Uganda, Ethiopia and Niger, the map of the conflict may extend from the Sahel to the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. This would turn it into the world's largest regional conflict.

Sudan is of geostrategic importance. The interests of world and regional powers are creating new alliances, so their competition could worsen the conflict even further. Gulf countries, mainly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have potential investments in Sudan. They are engaged in political developments since the fall of Bashar's regime. Meanwhile, Arab League foreign ministers meeting in an extraordinary session on May 6 broadly backed Damascus' return to the league, after an 11-year hiatus, as a first step in resolving the Syrian crisis. On the other hand, the League demanded an immediate ceasefire and the parties to sit down at the negotiating table to find a peaceful solution in Sudan. Saudi Arabia's commitment to restore its religious influence in the region risks another rift in the pan-Arab world. 

      Towards the end of his era, to compensate for the lost relations with the West and the US, since the bombing of Khortum, due to the harbouring of Bin Laden, the economic embargo, the political isolation and the inclusion on the list of sponsoring countries of terrorism, the President Omar Al-Bashir opened the doors to Russia. Now, Russia is present in the region of the Middle East, Sahel and North Africa for a decade also through Wagner, who has his economic-military activity in the region. The region has served as the main source for recruiting mercenaries engaged in Wagner's forces as far as Ukraine. In agreement with the Sudanese government, Russia controls the country's two main ports and will build a naval base in Port-Sudan as part of its strategy to increase its economic and military influence in the Red Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Arabian Sea. Lavrov's visit to Sudan, in February of this year, certified this alliance. While Russian companies operate in mining and natural gas, Sudan remains one of the largest importers of Russian arms in Africa. The RFS maintains close relations with Wagner troops since the time of the conflict in Libya. Among other things, Russia's interest is the escalation of the conflict to divert attention from Ukraine.

    Realizing the threat posed by the strengthening of Russia and China in the region, after 2019 the US has increased its interest. After a break in relations for a quarter of a century, in August 2022, the US appointed its ambassador to Sudan and tries to be balanced in its positions. The West and the US decided to support the military junta in government and the transition plan to democratic elections, but after the coup, they suspended financial aid. Beyond the geostrategic interest, the vision of the West was naive. The US trusted the military for a smooth transition of governance to civilian hands, so it was disappointed by the outbreak of factional conflict last month. But last week's attack on the US diplomatic convoy in Khortum by the RFS shows that things have gone too far. The continuous contacts of the Biden administration with the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Great Britain have not yielded results so far, while Turkey's efforts for negotiations between the parties depend on Erdogan's political fate in the May 14 political elections. Conflict at this stage is unpredictable. 

    The humanitarian crisis is compounded by that of immigrants. Since the start of the conflict, in less than three weeks, 100,000 Sudanese have left the country and 330,000 have been displaced. According to analysts, if the conflict is not stopped, it will create a wave of immigration with 1-2 million refugees. In such conditions, the EU will find itself in the middle of internal controversies. Its role to engage in the crisis of Sudan and North Africa will be limited. No state can act wisely simultaneously in every part of the globe, says Henry Kissinger, yet John Kennedy's advice remains valid: "Mankind must end war before war ends mankind". Otherwise, Sudan may turn into the fuse of a wide world war.