What happened with the Greek economy, its politics, the fight against the pandemic in 2021 and the perspectives for 2022 as well as the relations with Albania, Turkey and the EU were the main topics of the conversation with Ms. Alexandra Voudouri, foreign affairs editor and analyst for Macropolis.gr & Athina 9.84 fm, which appear in the exclusive interview in Albanian Daily News. 

“In a difficult financial environment globally, due to the ongoing pandemic crisis as well as the current energy crisis, the Greek economy was, indeed, somehow successful in 2021. More specifically, Greece was successful in attracting foreign investments (Microsoft, Pfizer, Amazon),” noted Ms. Voudouri, who, however, was worried over rising energy and consumer prices considering them as a headache for the government in 2022. “And as analysts point out, if households start to be reserved in their spending, this may lead Greece to a new cycle of recession.”

A well- known connoisseur of the course of the relations of Greece with Turkey, political analyst Voudouri believed that, unfortunately, Turkey will remain the main threat to Greece’s security in 2022.  “Although 2021 ended with Greek-Turkish tensions at controlled levels, there are no signs that bilateral relations will return to a state of “normality”.  All these, of course, are very much related to the fact that neither side seems genuinely wishing to engage into substantial talks aiming at putting an end to their standoff.”

Asked about the current situation in the Balkans, the Greek analyst thinks that it is widely known that the region is currently facing a new era of instability, and, according to her, the most dangerous boiling points somewhat predictably involve unresolved issues stemming from the breakup of Yugoslavia, and several and multiple crises in the region occurred, especially in the last half of 2021. “Unfortunately, these destabilization trends are mainly explained by both the EU’s inability to provide guarantees of an assured European perspective and to the lack of effective diplomatic efforts from Washington.”  

On the other hand, she saw rival states competing for influence in the region just as domestic constraints on both sides of the Atlantic are undermining prospects for a more ambitious regional policy. “While the European Union has even more at stake in the Balkans, it faces an even greater credibility deficit than the United States.  The prospect of an unstable Balkans will have direct spillover effects for the bordering states, all of which are EU member states.”

In a comment on the approach towards the region, Ms. Voudouri holds that Greece has neglected to a great extent the Balkans, which is far closer and neighboring countries that always see Athens as a key partner. Besides that Athens, according to her, monitors at the same time with concern Turkey's active role in the region.

In the meantime, Foreign Editor Voudouri was displeased about the lack of official meetings between the governments of Greece and Albania, or any progress related to the October 2020 joint agreement to refer their dispute over maritime borders in the Ionian Sea to the International Court of Justice.

But in her view the time has surely come for the two countries to also re-focus on the other “thorny issues” of the bilateral relations. “It is quite uncertain whether both governments, already consumed with other issues, would show a genuine desire to get involved in talks aiming at giving a final resolution to these.  But this is much needed for the further improvement of relations also between the two societies,” said foreign affairs editor and analyst for Macropolis.gr & Athina 9.84 fm Alexandra Voudouri in the following interview: 

Albanian Daily News:Followingyears of hard economic problems, the Greek economy was reportedly successful in 2021. Which are your predictions for 2022 and could a positive economic course maintain a calm political atmosphere in the country?

Political analyst Alexandra Voudouri: In a difficult financial environment globally, due to the ongoing pandemic crisis as well as the current energy crisis, the Greek economy was, indeed, somehow successful in 2021. More specifically, Greece was successful in attracting foreign investments (Microsoft, Pfizer, Amazon). In fiscal policy issues, Greece is doing relatively well due to the fact that the European Central Bank is still buying Greek bonds even though they are not of investment grade. However, Athens needs to reach investment grade, so that it will be supported by the ECB in its own right and not as an exception.   

At the same time, it should be noted that for the last two years the government has lacked a strong political adversary. And without a significant political adversary, inertia tends to take over. Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis was elected, however, as a reformer. For the last two years and mainly due to the pandemic crisis and other domestic issues, he was not able to make a major head-away in reforms. Luckily, the pandemic has driven the EU to provide funds that could be used for this purpose.     

But since the country could see elections in the coming months, it is uncertain whether the PM will carry out deep structural and much needed reforms, since the Greek society is rather conservative and does not want changes; usually unions and several business interests put significant pressure on every government to retain the status quo.

Rising energy and consumer prices are also a headache for the government. And as analysts point out, if households start to be reserved in their spending, this may lead Greece to a new cycle of recession.

Of course, Mitsotakis says he plans to see out his four-year mandate, which began in 2019. But he faces already a fresh challenge, a 42-year-old MEP Nikos Androulakis, who was elected in December as leader of the centre-left Movement for Change, KINAL.

An opinion poll published a few days ago, shows New Democracy still enjoying a convincing lead on 32.5 per cent, ahead of the leftist SYRIZA on 22.5 per cent. There is currently a rise in support for KINAL to 14.5 per cent. Centrist and moderate voters are unhappy with some of the government’s policies and especially some of its figures. After the election of Nikos Androulakis, it seems that some are beginning to see him as an alternative.

Overall, in 2022 and in contrast to previous years, the damage to the Greek government will be bigger. Even though, no-one - including main opposition SYRIZA party - is clearly seeking elections at the moment, all the above developments may lead to early elections in the country.

- Ms. Voudouri, what will 2022 bring about in the relations between Turkey and Greece, and  do you think that ‘realpolitik’ will prevail between the two countries during this year as besides the impact of the ongoing pandemic the general political atmosphere is tense in all corners of the world?   

- It is true that Athens is currently assessing Turkey’s aim to normalize relations with all states of the wider region, with which Ankara has even reached complete cessation of diplomatic relations the last couple of years. Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has personally been involved in this tactic of rapprochement with countries of the region and until now, this aim has reached both tangible results and symbolic gestures.

In the cases of Israel or the United Arab Emirates their wish to get functional relations with Ankara is driven by Washington, which is currently supporting the creation of conditions that could allow Turkey’s inclusion in developments and co-operation schemes in the region. The US seems not wishing to “lose” Ankara from its western orientation. Ankara’s rapprochement especially with Israel, the UAE and Egypt are causing concern to Athens, which has invested the last couple of years in cultivating strong relations with them.

So, Athens is called to reshape its stance and to adapt itself into a new geopolitical reality, where Turkey is returning as the West's and the wider region’s partner and not an opponent.

However, at the same time, Ankara will not only insist on its agenda vis-a-vis the Aegean Sea but is also expected to put further pressure on Athens.  Unfortunately, Turkey will remain the main threat to Greece’s security in 2022.  Although 2021 ended with Greek-Turkish tensions at controlled levels, there are no signs that bilateral relations will return to a state of “normality”.  All these, of course, are very much related to the fact that neither side seems genuinely wishing to engage into substantial talks aiming at putting an end to their standoff.

- A few days ago, International Holocaust Remembrance Day was marked and it was an opportunity for humankind to pay respect to the victims of the Second World War, but also to reflect on those dark times. Coming home - to the Balkans - how do you assess the current situation as the region has been the scene of tragic bloody conflicts after 1945, and which is the expected role of Greece as a traditional key country in the area?   

- It is widely known that the Balkans are currently facing a new era of instability. The most dangerous boiling points somewhat predictably, involve unresolved issues stemming from the breakup of Yugoslavia. Several and multiple crises in the region occurred, especially in the last half of 2021.

Unfortunately, these destabilization trends are mainly explained by both the EU’s inability to provide guarantees of an assured European perspective and to the lack of effective diplomatic efforts from Washington.

At the same time, rival states are competing for influence in the region just as domestic constraints on both sides of the Atlantic are undermining prospects for a more ambitious regional policy. Neither of these two trends is likely to change in medium short term, meaning the West is unlikely to devote long-term attention or substantial resources to the region moving forward.

While the European Union has even more at stake in the Balkans, it faces an even greater credibility deficit than the United States. The prospect of an unstable Balkans will have direct spillover effects for the bordering states, all of which are EU member states. As one of them, Greece is monitoring developments in the region with concern. In public statements, Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias has already stressed the worrying situation, especially in Bosnia – Herzegovina.

Athens, however, like the EU, has lost a great opportunity especially following the Prespa Agreement - which created the necessary conditions, especially for Greece - to play a decisive role in mediating or participating in efforts aiming at resolving disputes in the region.

Greece has invested especially in the last two years much diplomatic capital in forging uncertain – as it is now proven – alliances with countries in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, neglecting to a great extent a region, which is far closer and neighboring countries that always see Athens as a key partner.    

Athens monitors at the same time with concern Turkey's active role in the region. In all his public statements with counterparts of the Western Balkan countries, Dendias is stressing that the future of the region cannot be “neo-Ottomanism”. However, it is doubtful whether Greece is able to offer innovative ideas or a vision required to help resolve some of the standoffs in the region. Athens may send the right political messages, but in reality along with the EU does not have a clear strategy to even give a way out to the current deadlock of the Western Balkans' European future.

- The last but not the least important question: ADN’s readers, Mr. Voudouri, are keen to know your opinion on the expectations of the Albanian-Greek political, economic, social and cultural course. In general, what 2022 will offer the two people in the field of cooperation? 

- Unfortunately in 2021 there were actually no official meetings between the two governments, or any progress related to the October 2020 joint agreement to refer their dispute over maritime borders in the Ionian Sea to the International Court of Justice.    

However, it is of utmost importance for both countries to finally proceed with the arbitration agreement with which they will declare, in writing, that they agree to bring their difference to the ICJ. This has not been signed yet. According to opinion polls in both Greece and especially in Albania, citizens seem to assess as a rather positive development the October 2020 agreement. Eventually, progress on this issue will further improve bilateral relations and will definitely play down usual suspicions in Athens towards Tirana's close relations with Ankara and the usual narrative that Albania plays to Turkish interests in the region.

The recent visit of Tayyip Erdogan to Tirana received a lot of attention by the Greek media for all the above reasons; nevertheless, no - one has commented that there has been no official visit of any Greek Prime Minister to Albania for many years now.

The time has surely come for the two countries to also re-focus on the other “thorny issues” of the bilateral relations. It is quite uncertain whether both governments, already consumed with other issues, would show a genuine desire to get involved in talks aiming at giving a final resolution to these topics. But this is much needed for the further improvement of relations also between the two societies.

Apart from what politically and diplomatically divide the two peoples, there are other factors, political and non –political, that have an interest to retain a status of distrust and suspicion between our two countries.

Relevant studies and some of these conducted also by ELIAMEP especially about the relations between Greece and Albania and the role of the media show that there is still much stereotyping and prejudice on the public agenda of both countries.   

Both societies however could do better and this could be possible, especially when a clear European path is opened for Albania. Civil society actors, academics and the media in both countries should work together to dismantle prejudice and negative stereotypes. There is no common future for the two neighbouring countries, NATO allies and future European partners to move forward without being friends. All of us need to give our best for this cause; and, I can assure you that on its behalf, ELIAMEP along with its partners and friends in Albania has already and will insist on working with specific projects towards this direction.