Construction Glut; Is the Bubble Near?!

After two years of growth, the demand for buying apartments in the capital is showing slowing trends. Builders in Tirana claim that for the past 2-3 months, the demand has been much lower than at the beginning of the year. This trend has been particularly noticeable for new residential facilities being built near the center, according to the economic magazine Monitor. 
The demand started to shrink since the fall of last year. Despite its performance, the price trend has increased compared to last year. A survey by the Bank of Albania in May showed that the construction confidence indicator (CCI) in the construction sector is not optimistic for the fourth month in a row. From April to June, the balance has turned negative, indicating that pessimism prevails over optimism. According to the Bank, the CCI fell by 2 percentage points in June, down to -3.14. 
Currently, the demand is decreasing compared to previous years, according to Ylli Sula, the leader of the "Key Data" index for the real estate market. "In the previous two years, demand rates were unusual compared to the normal trend of previous years. There is already a saturation of the market, as the previous pace could not be maintained for a long period," he asserts. 
The growth of real estate activity has slowed significantly in the first quarter of this year, according to the latest data from INSTAT on Gross Domestic Product. Sales and purchase transactions in the country reached 36 billion ALL, or almost 360 million euros, in the January-March period. While this is a new record in terms of value, growth rates are the lowest since mid-2011, before the market began strong double-digit expansion. 
INSTAT data show that real estate activity increased by 5.9% on an annual basis in the first quarter of this year. Growth rates have halved compared to 2023, when they peaked at 11.3%, the highest level in at least a decade. Unlike real estate activity, the construction sector has continued strong growth, signaling for the first time in the last two years a mismatch between demand and supply. Construction rose 14% in January-March 2024, up from 9.8% expansion last year. 
The downward trend in apartment purchases is also evident in the data from the State Cadastre Agency, where the number of real estate sales transactions in Tirana for 2023 fell by 21% compared to the previous year.