Bank of Albania

Economic Confidence Index Inches Up in Oct

Albania’s economic confidence index increased to 113 points in October, up 0.4 percentage points (pp) from September, the central bank said on Friday.

The increase was driven by higher confidence in the service sector, which confidence indicator rose by 4 pp to stand 19 pp above the historic average, the Bank of Albania said in a monthly business and consumer confidence survey.

The service indicator increased mainly on the back of more positive balances regarding the current performance of their activity and the current level of demand. Services-related businesses have revised the performance of prices in the future.

The industry confidence indicator fell by 2.5 percentage points (pp), to stand some 10 pp above the historic average.

The industry indicator was down this month mainly as businesses reported less optimistic appraisals on current industrial production, particularly concerning the level of new order books.  In addition, businesses operating in the industry sector are not optimistic regarding the level of industrial production for the future. Expectations of selling prices in the future slightly decreased compared to the previous month.

The construction indicator also decreased, by 3.3 pp, to 23 points above average. The decline of the construction indicator in October was driven by both of its components: assessments of the current construction business and the level of new order books. Expectations for selling prices in the future also edged down.

The confidence indicator of the trade sector slightly rose, by 0.1 pp to some 10 points above average. Expectations on future employment had a diminishing impact on the trade sector's confidence. As regards expectations on future selling prices, businesses operating in the trade sector have reported higher assessments.

The consumer confidence index rose by 0.2 pp, to 1.6 points above average. Although the components of the consumer index provided contributions in opposite directions, their aggregate effect was positive. Meanwhile, expectations on the economic situation and those regarding major purchases expanded in October, and consumers’ expectations of unemployment in the future declined.