Vucic Has Given up Kosovo

Although the focus of this talk with the head of the Helsinki Committee Serbia, Sonja Biserko, was planned to be the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Albania and Albania, we could not fail to highlight that Albania officially opened on October 15 the first chapter of its negotiations for European Union membership, marking a historic milestone for the country in its journey towards integration. Albanian Daily News asked her what the significance of this event for Albania, EU and the regional countries is.

"In my view, this process should have started long ago. The EU has been too slow in responding to new realities in the broader context, which significantly impact the Western Balkans. Although it is late, it is crucial that the process of EU approximation has finally begun. I hope it won’t take too long before Albania joins the EU, as this would undoubtedly stabilize and consolidate regional dynamics," Ms. Biserko said in the following interview:

Albanian Daily News: During President Erdogan's visit to Belgrade where he revealed the decision to cooperate with Serbia in developing military industries declaring that Turkish-Serbian relationship was experiencing a 'Golden Era'. Which is the impact for the Western Balkans, of hat is commented as fever of Belgrade to boost its military capacities?

-Sonja Biserko: Turkey, not just Erdogan, views the Western Balkans as a crucial "geostrategic gateway" to Europe, with significant historical importance in shaping the Turkish nation. However, Serbia's geopolitical position makes it key actor in the Balkans. Relations between Turkey and Serbia are steadily improving, with both countries considering themselves neighbors, despite not sharing a common border. Their “strategic partnership” reflects this growing cooperation.

Since Serbia has not strategically aligned itself, it is developing relations with both the East and the West. Despite its neutral stance, Serbia is acquiring arms from both sides. Recent economic and military agreements with Germany, France, and the United States indicate that the West increasingly sees Serbia integrating into its sphere of influence. Meanwhile, Serbia is also exporting arms, particularly munitions, to countries including Ukraine and Israel, among others. Although Serbia has declared neutrality, its significant arms industry - partly inherited from Yugoslavia - raises concerns in the region. This naturally raises significant concerns in the region, despite Serbia’s declared neutrality. On the other hand, all of Serbia’s neighbors are NATO members or have affiliations through KFOR and EUFOR. Due to the war in Ukraine, the region is under close surveillance, as security is a high priority for the West.

 

-In the meantime, what does it mean for EU this massive move by an aspirant country at a time when the tension is high in the region and Brussels is trying to reinvigorate the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia as the latter has threatened with intentions to occupy the North? The Serb adventure last year is fresh....

- Unfortunately, the EU was not very successful in the moderating dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo. Recent agreements were possible due to the US presence in the dialogue. Due to geopolitical changes not only because of Ukraine war (which only crystalized the ongoing trend), the EU itself is in the process of reshaping its security strategy. It greatly affected the regional arms race (in violation of arms agreements). However, Article IV of the Dayton Peace Accords provided the framework for negotiations of a sub-regional arms control agreement, which was concluded in Florence on 14 June 1996. It engaged the three parties within Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as Croatia and Serbia and Montenegro. I am not sure whether the ongoing arming is within the mentioned framework.

-What could you say about the stance of Turkey, declaring Serbia as the number one stabilizer of the region while Albania is declared the center of Muslimanism in the region? This stance is also shared by some EU countries. Is it a kind of division of tasks, in a turbulent region. Could regional countries accept such an approach when most of them are NATO members?

- Serbia and Albania both have regional ambitions, specifically through the actions of Vucic and Rama. This concept was endorsed during the Trump administration when the Open Balkan initiative was launched. It clearly favored Albania and Serbia as regional leaders. However, not all Western Balkan countries supported the initiative, and three of them refused to become members. Currently, the initiative is no longer a priority as the Berlin Process is taking over regional cooperation. The Berlin Process is a much broader concept and benefits all sides.

President Erdogan has shown a clear interest in mobilizing Muslim countries, including Albania (and Kosovo), as predominantly Muslim states. Personally, I do not view Albania in this way, as it has maintained its secular character. On the other hand, Serbia has historically acted as both a stabilizer and a destabilizer. At present, Serbia remains a potential destabilizer given its policies toward Bosnia, Kosovo, and Montenegro.

-In addition, EU continues to tolerate Serbia to be out of step with the stance towards Russia as Belgrade challenges that it will never abandon Moscow. How does it view such a differentiation between Vucic and Kosovo, for example, which has fulfilled their pledges toward Ukraine fighting Russian occupiers?

- The Western effort aims to draw Serbia closer to the West, a priority in the region, especially following the Banjska case. Serbia, with its geostrategic non-alignment, remains the only country in the Balkans that maintains strong ties with Russia and is resisting the imposition of sanctions. Consequently, the Western policy of appeasement continues unabated. However, I am uncertain whether this approach will yield the expected results, particularly in light of the upcoming US elections. Serbia is hoping for a Trump victory, which could significantly impact current regional efforts.

-As developments unfold in the region, do you think there might be another “Republika Srpska”, this time in Kosovo North? It cannot be neglected that five EU members do not recognize Kosovo...

- Kosovo is currently on its way to fully asserting control over its territorial integrity. I believe that President Vucic has given up on Kosovo, but it remains to be seen how willing the Serbian community in the north will be to integrate. Due to the turbulence in the Middle East, security concerns in the Western Balkans are directly linked to it. A partition of Kosovo would open a Pandora's box, potentially triggering massive upheaval in the wider region. / ADN