Eurozone Inflation Holds Above Expectations
Inflation in the eurozone remained unchanged in April, staying higher than analysts expected, official data showed on Friday, but was unlikely to sway the European Central Bank from its interest rate-cutting cycle.
Consumer prices in the 20-country single currency area rose 2.2 percent in April, the same rate as in March, the EU statistics agency said, despite a faster fall in energy prices.
Core inflation - which strips out volatile energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco prices and is a key indicator for the ECB - accelerated more than expected to 2.7 percent in April, after registering a 2.4 percent increase in March, Eurostat data showed.
Analysts for Bloomberg and FactSet had expected headline inflation to slow down to 2.1 percent and core inflation to accelerate to 2.5 percent.
The disappointing figures come after services sector inflation rose by 3.9 percent last month, significantly higher than the 3.5 percent recorded in March.
The ECB closely monitors the sector as it is highly correlated to wage growth, with fears over a vicious cycle between rising wages and increasing prices, making it more difficult to tackle inflation. "These increases will remind the ECB of possible upside risks to inflation," said Hugh Lind, an economist at the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research.
"Nevertheless, with continued uncertainty weighing on growth in the currency area, we expect the ECB to continue cutting rates over the rest of the year," he added.
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos expressed confidence on Monday that inflation would continue to fall, despite trade tensions linked to US President Donald Trump's tariffs. "The rise in core inflation should not cause concern due to the temporary nature of the services uptick, and the outlook becoming less inflationary," said Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani, senior economist at Oxford Economics.
Fabiani added the ECB is "likely to cut rates" at its June 5 meeting "before holding steady". Friday's data also showed energy prices sharply fell by 3.5 percent, after a drop of 1.0 percent in March.
Meanwhile, food, alcohol, and tobacco price rises accelerated to 3.0 percent in April, slightly up from 2.9 percent in March.
Consumer price rises in Europe's two biggest economies, Germany and France, slowed in April to 2.2 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively.
Services inflation, a central metric in the ECB’s assessment of underlying price pressures, surged to 3.9% annually, up from 3.5% in March.
On a month-on-month basis, services prices increased by 0.9%. The rise in food, alcohol and tobacco inflation—from 2.9% to 3.0%—added to the upside pressures, while energy prices continued to drag on the headline figure, falling 3.5% compared to the same period last year.
Across the euro area, inflation remained highly uneven. Estonia recorded the highest annual inflation rate at 4.4%, followed by the Netherlands and Latvia at 4.1%. France saw the lowest price growth, with annual inflation at just 0.8%.
Despite the stronger-than-expected inflation print, financial markets remained largely undisturbed. Investors appeared to maintain confidence that the ECB would press ahead with a rate cut in June.