Never before since the end of the Second World War the world hasn't been gripped by such a complex of conflicts of different nature. They are not isolated, rather they have affected all parts of the world, including Europe. Ukraine war, Middle East bloodshed fighting in some parts of it like Gaza, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Western Balkans seem endless.

Never before EU closed 2024 more split than ever with some member countries 'going' their own way on specific issues not following the concerted platform of the Union. And this is evident in all fields from economic to politics, and social anxieties.

What makes the situation gloomier is that the so-called engines of the block, Germany and France are hit by internal and external crises.

Germany, a solid traditional guide of the block is itself involved in complexity of the atmosphere of general elections, losing the power to have together with France the authoritative leadership in EU and beyond in the near future.

"With France and Germany currently in this political instability, nothing will really move in Europe,” analyst Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING Research, commented.

So Europe has entered 2025 amid numerous challenges, but if we were pressed to name a potential game-changer, the German elections in February would be it.

Domestic conditions, though, are not ideal for the largest Eurozone member: an economy in recession, high energy prices, an ailing car industry, and public investment shackled by a constitutional borrowing limit. Externally, Donald Trump’s trade plans may affect Germany’s export-driven economy.

In the meantime, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has a heavy workload in 2025 as in January. Poland took over the rotating EU presidency, and the challenges the Polish leader will face are more than complex.

Although Warsaw has a big political chance to take advantage of the Franco-German axis’ instability and show EU leadership, Tusk will need to walk a tightrope in EU policies—especially on Ukraine’s support—and simultaneously find a modus vivendi between the EU and incoming US President Donald Trump. Tusk’s second challenge is the domestic front. Next May, Poland will hold presidential elections, “the most important since the fall of communism in 1989”, according to analysts.

What has made more confusing the situation is the future relationship with the US with Trump at the White House? The main leaders of the EU should try to be more cautious in their stances towards Trump who is guided by the motto 'America first; he has made it clear that the overall relationship with the EU will change along with the rules of the 'game'. And two things seem to be as more complex: economic and military relationship.

In addition to the adding of these layers of complexity Trump's return to the White House on January 20 will be characterized by the pressure on Brussels to choose between Washington and Beijing.

Brussels has been 'afraid' of Trump being not like his predecessor Biden and this trend seem to become more evident. He has certainly special relationship with individual leaders of the member countries like Hungary, Italy, Poland etc. The visit of Italian PM Melony meeting Trump has been very friendly and taking place just a short time before January 20 is meaningful.

On the other hand, after almost three years of promises to Ukraine and a sense of urgency for military supplies replaced by uncertainty over the next US administration’s interests, 2025 will show “if Europe can put its money where its mouth is,” said analyst Aurielie Pugnet.

As far as the United States is concerned it is facing numerous domestic challenges while striving to Trump’s return in January adds another layer of complexity. He will likely try to pressure the EU to choose between Washington and Beijing.

The new American administration’s first major test will be bringing an end to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza as Trump has pledged during the election campaign. Following these actions, its approach to Russia and China will become clearer.

In the meantime, the incoming Trump administration has not paid much attention to the Western Balkans, and it is doubtful that the region will play an important role in the US foreign policy. Nevertheless, according to a comment of EWB, the global impact of this administration could also be reflected in the Balkans. Thus, it remains to be seen how the new administration in Brussels will be able to overcome the stalemate and bring peace between Kosovo and Serbia, something which many diplomatic circles doubt.

On the other hand, Russia's scheme of a quick victory in Ukraine has totally failed and it is apparent that it is getting more and more 'tired' with a shaky economy and shortage of military manpower.

Regarding the war in Ukraine one thing is clear that Europe has avoided its direct engagement and such a stance doesn't seem to change despite hints of Ukrainian leader Zelensky to get it involved. Some EU leaders have made it publicly clear that "Ukrainian war is not ours".

It would be a relief not only for Europe and the countries involved in it but for the entire world an end of that war which as Trump has pledged will be over as soon as he enters the White House through his mediation.

Everything seems pending on international scale and let's see if 2025 will be a year to enter history annals as the year bringing solution to many conflicts which is wished by the people of the world.

/ ADN