Davos Forum and Artificial Intelligence

The World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, opened this Monday 15 January 2024 against a backdrop of geopolitical and geo-economic tensions, particularly with the continuation of the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East. 
Driven by the determination to rebuild trust and promote dialogue to find common solutions to global problems, this 54th meeting focuses on four main axes: achieving security and cooperation in a fractured world, creating growth and jobs for a new era, exploring the role of artificial intelligence as a driver of the economy and society, and developing a long-term strategy for climate, nature, and energy. 
Meanwhile, other major challenges await leaders and governments around the world in terms of technology developments. And this year, artificial intelligence (AI) is a more important part of it. The unchecked spread of general-purpose artificial intelligence technologies will fundamentally reshape economies and societies in the coming years, both positively and negatively, warns the Forum's report on the global risk landscape for 2024. At the same time, the harmful consequences of AI technologies appear in the top 10 risks. 
Disinformation, loss of jobs, criminal use and cyber-attacks, bias and discrimination, use in critical decision-making by organizations and states, and integration of AI in weapons and warfare are among the main risks to consider. Artificial Intelligence, in addition to the benefits of productivity and progress in various fields such as health or education, also has serious negative consequences. Thus, AI models that can be used on a large scale are no strangers to disinformation (we think of voice cloning for example), perceived as "the most serious global risk of the next two years", this report underlines. 
According to the report, foreign and domestic actors will use disinformation to further deepen social and political divisions. This may be present in the nearly three billion people expected to go to the polls in several economies, including Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, the UK, and the US, over the next two years. Over the years, the widespread use of disinformation and the means to disseminate it can undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments. The resulting unrest can range from violent protests and hate crimes to civil strife and terrorism.  

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND WARS 
Similarly, the convergence of technological advances and geopolitical dynamics is likely to create a new set of winners and losers across advanced and developing economies. If commercial incentives and geopolitical imperatives, rather than public interest, remain the main drivers of the development of AI and other futuristic technologies, the digital divide between high- and low-income countries will lead to a great disparity in distribution and related benefits. 
According to a study conducted in September-October 2023, based on the opinions of 1490 experts from universities, businesses, and governments around the world, short-term (within 2 years) and long-term (within 10 years) risks were analyzed. Data shows that further integration of AI into conflict decision-making - to autonomously select and determine targets - could lead to accidental or intentional escalation, the report says. The risks are particularly significant with the integration of AI into nuclear weapons, as open access to AI applications could empower malicious actors to conceive and develop new tools of disruption and conflict, from malware to biological weapons. For survey respondents, public awareness and education are among the most effective mechanisms to understand the risks and reduce the harmful effects of AI technologies. They also emphasize the need for national and local regulation along with global treaties and agreements.  

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND THE LABOR MARKET 
According to a study published by the WEF organizers, about 1.4 million jobs in the United States alone will be affected by new technologies by 2026. According to the same study, 95% of the directly affected employees will be able, with adequate training, to find a good job. Without training, 16% of the working population could, on the contrary, see their chances of finding a job decline. This technological leap requires the establishment of extensive training programs while also taking care to manage the anxiety of many employees. 
The potential impact of AI on global employment raises many questions about the future of work, the distribution of wealth, and the preparation of economies for this transition. According to IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva, AI is poised to fundamentally transform the global employment landscape. In a recent interview with AFP, she pointed out that nearly 60% of jobs in advanced economies could be affected. However, Georgieva points out that the impacts of AI are not exclusively negative. For many professionals, especially those in highly skilled positions, this development could mean a significant increase in their income. She points out that the advent of AI can generate an increase in productivity, but raises the crucial question of the equitable distribution of these benefits. 
According to an IMF report, published ahead of Davos, one of the main risks identified is the accentuation of wage inequalities. Middle-class workers may be particularly affected, while those already enjoying high incomes may see their situation improve disproportionately. In the face of these changes, some countries, such as Singapore, the United States, and Canada, stand out for their proactive preparation for the integration of AI. However, the head of the IMF insists on the importance of focusing also on countries with lower incomes, calling for swift action to enable them to take advantage of the opportunities offered by AI.  

AI AND CHALLENGES OF THE FUTURE 
In a speech at Davos, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, the most senior official to attend the forum since President Xi Jinping in 2017, called on countries with AI technology to share it with those lagging. According to him, AI should be directed to the benefit of the progress of humanity and therefore there should be red lines that should not be crossed and that everyone should respect. And his speech about AI was not presented by accident. Advances in so-called generative AI, highlighted to the general public by ChatGPT, are at the center of much discussion. AI should be inclusive and useful for everyone, not just a small group of people. China has already started investing in AI. The country's giants Alibaba and Baidu have announced that they have silently developed their own national competitors for the American "OpenAI" conversational robot.  
On her part, the President of the European Commission, Ursula van der Leyen, warned that the EU must redouble its efforts to avoid stagnation in this race. According to her, the race has already begun. On the other hand, Microsoft chief Satya Nadella, also present in Switzerland, defended his partnership with OpenAI, where his investment of about 13 billion dollars since 2019 is in the attention of European regulators. Partnerships are a way to have competition, he said. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman also underlined that an energy breakthrough is needed for future Artificial Intelligence, which will consume much more energy than expected. Altman said that more climate-friendly sources of energy, especially nuclear or solar energy, and cheaper storage, are the way forward for Artificial Intelligence. 
The Davos Forum concludes that rebuilding trust must be done at three basic levels: trust in the future, trust within societies, and trust between nations. 

*Academician, economy expert, former Finance Minister and MP, Panorama, Jan 20, 2024)