IMF: Albania’s Real GDP Growth, 3.6% in 2024

The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for Albania, Anke Weber, said on Thursday that the IMF predicts that the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Albania, for this year, will be 3.6%, among the highest in Europe.

At the joint press conference with the Minister of Finance Petrit Malaj and the Governor of Bank of Albania, Gent Sejko, at the end of the next supervisory mission of the IMF, within the framework of Article IV, Weber announced that the medium-term growth forecasts remain strong between 3.5%, while the risks of this forecast are broadly balanced.

"The Albanian economy has shown a strong performance supported by prudent macroeconomic policies, while the real GDP has exceeded the trends before the pandemic, thanks to the booming tourism sector. Prudent fiscal policies have contributed to a significant reduction of public debt," declared Weber.

She spoke about proactive monetary policies. "The appreciation of the lek and the drop in global commodity prices have eased inflation somewhat. We predict real GDP growth of 3.6% this year, among the highest in Europe. Medium-term growth forecasts are expected to remain strong between 3.5%, while risks to this forecast are broadly balanced," she added.

Weber pointed out that there is a need to preserve these hard-earned gains, which are gains of fiscal sustainability.

According to her, the government should resume efforts to restructure the tax regime for self-employed professionals, along with the removal of the zero tax rate for small businesses.

Further, she added that the preparatory work for the adoption of the new law "On property tax" should be accelerated and completed at the appropriate time.

Weber also stressed that public investments and reforms to manage fiscal risks remain essential for fiscal transparency.

Weber estimates that with an inflation rate below the 3% target, lowering the base interest rate in November was the right move. This, according to her, reduces the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations. She announced that the current favorable conjuncture is the right time to undertake decisive reforms to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth.

The head of the IMF also said that even though the system of collecting social contributions is in good health, thanks to the reforms undertaken in 2014-2015, demographic trends are a challenge. Weber said that the IMF is ready to help the Albanian government in the process of drafting the reform of the new pension scheme.

On the other hand, Malaj stated that the Albanian economy is going through a good moment, performing positively. According to him, the first six months of the year confirmed a GDP growth of 3.9%.

Also, Malaj stated that within the year 2025 the process of determining the reference prices for the 68 municipalities of the country, excluding Tirana, will be completed and citizens will be able to reassess their property with the new prices and at a reduced rate.

In conclusion, Malaj stated that within the month of December, the 15% tax that was paid during the January-July period by freelancers will be returned.

Also, present at the meeting, Sejko stated that the gradual and careful normalization of the stance of monetary policy during the years 2022-2023, as well as its flexible reaction to the progress of inflation during the current year, have enabled Albania to have, at the same time, one of the lowest inflation, one of the highest rates of economic growth, as well as a stimulating financial environment and a rapid growth in lending.