Bank of Albania

Industry, Services Worsened Economic Confidence

The confidence indicator in the economy fell by 0.4 points in November. However, according to the Bank of Albania, this indicator continues to remain at historically high levels, about 13 points above the long-term average.

According to the report of the Bank of Albania published on Monday, the decline was mainly determined by the weakening of confidence in the services sector.

To a lesser extent, the drop in confidence in the industry sector also had an impact. On the other hand, the increase in confidence in the construction, trade, and consumer confidence sectors contributed positively, mitigating the decline in the aggregate indicator.

The industry confidence indicator fell by 0.9 percentage points in November. Its level is about 10 percentage points above the historical average. The decline was influenced by the more pessimistic estimates for business ordering contracts. The current industrial production situation was assessed more positively, mitigating the downward impact of the first component. The businesses are increasingly assessing the state of inventories. Expectations for future prices have not changed compared to last month.

On the other hand, the indicator of confidence in services fell by 6.1 percentage points in November, but its level remains well above the historical average of about 17 percentage points. The declining assessments of businesses for the current progress of their activity and the current level of demand contributed to the decline. Also, expectations for the level of employment and future price developments have been revised downwards.

Meanwhile, the confidence indicator in construction increased by 5.1 percentage points in November. Its level continues to remain about 28 points above the historical average. The increase was mainly driven by more optimistic estimates of current construction activity. Also, the ordering contracts were rated higher this month. Employment expectations rose slightly, while future price expectations followed the downward trend.

The trade confidence indicator increased by 2 percentage points in November, remaining about 13 points above the historical average. The increase was mainly influenced by the more optimistic assessment of the current business performance. Expectations for the level of employment in the future have continued to remain very close to last month's level. Expectations for future prices have been revised downward this month.

The consumer confidence indicator increased by 2.3 percentage points in November, bringing the level of the indicator 4.3 points above the historical average.

The improvement of the indicator has mainly reflected more optimistic expectations for the general situation of the economy in the future and for purchases in large amounts.