While the world’s eyes and attention were focused on the new Trump administration, the consequences of its policies after January 21 in Ukraine, and the raging fires of the Middle East, a new fire flared up and died down in the blink of an eye in Syria. A pending issue took suddenly an unexpected turn.

On December 8, 2024, the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime marked a historic and decisive turning point in the Syrian civil war, after nearly 14 years of conflict. This sudden defeat, despite the regime’s growing difficulties, was accelerated by the rapid and coordinated advance of rebel groups, in particular Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which launched a determined offensive from Idlib province, in the northwest of the country. The offensive, which began on November 27, 2024, benefited from the strategic and military support of Turkey, a regional power directly involved in the Syrian dynamic for several years.

A.   A POST-ASSAD SYRIA

The offensive enabled the rebels to quickly take control of the main cities and strategic urban centers of “useful Syria” – including Aleppo, Hama, Homs and eventually Damascus. The capture of the Syrian capital was the final blow to the regime, which had been weakened by years of bloody fighting, international sanctions and significant military and economic exhaustion. Assad’s overthrow was further facilitated by the gradual withdrawal of his main international supporters: Russia and Iran. These two powers, which had actively supported the regime since 2015, notably through military interventions and financial aid, gradually reduced their support for various political, strategic and economic reasons, including their reorientation towards other regional or international priorities.

1.   A fragile hope for the Syrian population

The fall of the regime offers oppressed Syrians, who have suffered for more than a decade under the authoritarian rule of Bashar al-Assad, a new breath of hope. Protesters, opposition groups and civilians have all too often seen their democratic aspirations suffocated, their cities destroyed and their loved ones sacrificed in the context of a brutal war. The overthrow of this regime could pave the way for a more inclusive reconstruction of the country, challenging the political status quo that has perpetuated social and economic inequalities.

However, this hope remains fragile in the face of an uncertain political and security reality. Syria remains a deeply fragmented state, with multiple factions, militias and foreign powers vying for influence. The divisive landscape is not limited to rebel and loyalist groups: it also includes ethnic, religious and ideological dynamics, as well as ongoing foreign interference.

2.   A fragmented Syria and areas of security vacuum

The regime’s failure leaves the country in a worrying security vacuum. The Syrian army, weakened by years of war, desertions and targeted Israeli attacks, is struggling to maintain stability in areas now beyond the control of loyalists. Large areas in the south, east and centre of the country are now devoid of state authority, creating fertile ground for the emergence of armed groups of all origins. Some of them risk taking advantage of this instability to strengthen their positions, exacerbating the already violent dynamics in the region.

Furthermore, the withdrawal of major support from Russia and Iran has left a strategic vacuum. This could allow new foreign actors or local armed groups to play a role in Syria’s political future. Israeli strikes, which have regularly attacked targets linked to Iran and its militias in the country, have also left unhealed wounds, with destroyed infrastructure and militias scattered across different regions, further complicating stability in the territory.

3.   Regional consequences: a new geopolitical dynamic

The fall of Assad and the overthrow of his regime have direct consequences for the regional geopolitical dynamics. Several foreign powers, including Turkey, Iran, Russia, the United States and Israel, are adapting their strategies in the region. Turkey, which supported the rebel offensive, is now seeking to increase its influence in northern Syria by consolidating its border against Kurdish influence.

For their part, Iran and Russia may be forced to reconsider their strategic priorities in the region. The impact of their withdrawal from the Syrian conflict opens the door to a realignment of regional alliances, especially with powers such as Saudi Arabia or the United States, which may seek to strengthen their positions in the vacuum left by the two great powers. Israel, for its part, is likely to continue its military operations to curb Iranian influence in the region.

The United States, although less directly involved in the fights for several years, must also navigate this new environment. The fall of the Syrian regime risks changing US strategic objectives, particularly in terms of counterterrorism, countering Iranian influence, and supporting opposition groups.

4.   A period of uncertainty for the future

While the regime’s overthrow offers a historic moment, this military victory has not resolved domestic political challenges or issues related to foreign powers. Syria’s future therefore remains uncertain. The prospect of rebuilding a country devastated by more than a decade of war, given the ethnic, religious, and political diversity of its population, remains complex.

Many challenges remain: restoring state institutions, reconciliation between different ethnic and religious groups, the reintegration of millions of internally displaced people and Syrian refugees in their areas of origin, and the need to curb foreign interference in the country’s internal affairs.

Therefore, the fall of the Assad regime, while a major turning point in the history of the region, is also a period of fragility, where any political or military decision could redefine the contours of Syria and the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East.

B.   IRAN: AN ACCENTUATED EXISTENTIAL CRISIS

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime constitutes a major strategic shaking for Iran, which sees the collapse of one of its key regional alliances. This alliance was created during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) and was based on strong geopolitical and ideological foundations, aimed in particular at countering Western influence and establishing an axis of resistance against Israel and the United States in the Middle East. The loss of this alliance would mean for Tehran a significant reduction of its influence in the region and a questioning of its ability to influence regional dynamics through its relations with the Syrian regime and its allied militias.

1.   Weakening of the axis of resistance

The fall of the Syrian regime weakens the axis of resistance led by Iran, which had played a key role in supporting groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. This axis represented not only a military strategy, but also a political lever to thwart the ambitions of Israel and the Western powers in the region. With the loss of Damascus as a key strategic ally, Iran finds itself facing a situation of increasing vulnerability, both on the security and political levels.

This new reality poses a major challenge for Iran, whose influence in Syria had allowed it to monitor the movements of its adversaries, control certain flows of allied militias, and strengthen its ambitions in the regional war against its rivals. With the collapse of the Assad regime and the withdrawal of foreign supporters such as Russia, Tehran must redouble its efforts to maintain control in this part of the Middle East, while trying to manage its relations with other rival powers.

2.   The issue of succession and the rise of internal disputes

The crisis is also internal. The issue of the succession of Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, is at the center of all concerns. Khamenei, in office since 1989, is aging, and his imminent departure risks creating a power vacuum with critical consequences for the stability of the Iranian regime. This moment of political transition comes in a context characterized by a surge in domestic protests, which reflect the population’s fatigue facing the economic hardship, international sanctions, and political restrictions.

In front of this situation, the reformist wing of the regime, represented by political figures in favor of the dialogue with the West, is returning to the forefront. These reformists are calling for a review of Iranian foreign policy, in particular through the resumption of negotiations with Western powers over Iran’s nuclear program and economic sanctions. However, their credibility has been seriously weakened since the United States withdrew from the nuclear agreement (JCPOA) in 2018, plunging Iran into a period of increasing international isolation and under significant economic pressure.

This fragile situation is pushing the Iranian regime to reactivate its nuclear policy, in the faint hope of strengthening its position in the upcoming negotiations with the new US administration. The aim would be to demonstrate both its capacity to resist international pressure and its strategic ambitions in the always unstable regional context.

3.   A cautious approach to avoid escalation

To maintain their influence while minimizing risks, pro-Iranian militias must act with increased strategic caution. They are seeking to move in this complex balance, strengthening their positions along the Iraq-Syria border without provoking new clashes with Israel or Western powers. The goal would be to consolidate their military and political capabilities while maintaining some stability in their operations.

This strategy also includes strengthening their relations with the Iraqi government, which remains divided on the issue of the militias’ position within the Iraqi state. The willingness and steps to secure the border could allow the militias to prove their usefulness in the fight against regional threats, including residues of the Islamic State and smuggling, positioning themselves as key players in Iraq’s national security.

4.   A period of strategic uncertainty

The combination of the collapse of the Syrian regime, domestic protests, regional instability, and international pressures puts Iran in an extremely vulnerable position. The regime must now navigate across a complex situation where any decision – whether on nuclear negotiations, regional stability or internal crisis management – ??could have significant consequences.

In this context, the revival of Iranian nuclear policy seems to be a way for Tehran to reposition itself on the international chessboard, while seeking to compensate for its domestic and regional weaknesses. The outcome of this strategy remains uncertain, as it will depend not only on Iran’s ability to consolidate allies and strategic objectives, but also on the willingness of Western powers, especially the United States, to engage in dialogue and negotiations with the Islamic Republic.

Thus, Iran’s existential crisis is multidimensional: it is geopolitical, economic, domestic and nuclear. Faced with this situation, Tehran will probably have to adopt a pragmatic approach while maintaining its strategic ambitions to avoid an irreversible weakening on the regional and international stage.

C.   GULF MONARCHIES FACING REGIONAL THREATS

1.   Gulf monarchies: new dynamics

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks an important strategic turning point for the Gulf monarchies, which now find themselves facing new geopolitical and strategic challenges in their approach to Syria. This situation, caused by the collapse of a key regional actor, is forcing these states to review their priorities, alliances and strategies for preventing prolonged instability in the region, while seeking to protect their national and regional interests.

The relations between Iran and the Gulf monarchies have been for a long time characterized by geopolitical, religious and economic conflicts. The fragile balance between these powers is now being tested, with Assad’s fall as a new disruptive element. In front of potential threats, these monarchies have maintained an uncompromising stance, seeking to strengthen their military capabilities and international alliances to counter Tehran’s influence.

The regional dynamics do not stop there. The Gulf monarchies, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, continue to closely monitor Iranian expansionism. These countries, often in opposition to Tehran, remain steadfast in their security and diplomatic approaches. Any Israeli attempt at escalation, or any Iranian initiative aimed at exploiting the vacuum left by Assad’s fall, would be considered as a direct threat by these states.

2.   A period of strategic reassessment

Since the beginning of the Syrian civil war, the Gulf monarchies have adopted different stances regarding the conflict. The differences between them – particularly between Qatar and its neighbors such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – are reflected in their different approaches to foreign policy, security, and alliances. However, with the fall of the Assad regime, these differences may change, prompting the Gulf countries to consider more cooperative approaches to ensure regional stability and their strategic interests.

3.   Qatar’s potential role in reconstruction

Qatar is in a particular position. After breaking diplomatic relations with Damascus in 2011, the country had distanced itself from the Syrian regime due to its support for moderate opposition groups and opposition to Assad’s policies. However, with the fall of the regime, Qatar could position itself as a key player in the reconstruction phase of Syria.

By seeking to play a central role in the reconstruction, Qatar hopes to limit the risk of “protracted chaos” that could have negative consequences for the region as a whole, particularly in terms of migration flows or political instability. This move also aims to strengthen the country’s regional influence by repositioning itself as a diplomatic actor capable of promoting stability and reconciliation.

Qatar could invest in humanitarian aid programs, infrastructure reconstruction initiatives, and economic projects aimed at restoring stability in areas devastated by the conflict. This approach would offer Qatar not only a way to contribute to the reconstruction, but also to improve its relations with the various opposition groups and international powers involved in the reconstruction process.

4.   Saudi Arabia: Preserving regional stability and Syria’s sovereignty

For Saudi Arabia, the priority is clear: preserving Syria’s sovereignty and preventing any destabilization that could have negative consequences for the entire Middle East. Riyadh remains concerned about Iran’s influence in the region, especially in the context of the Syrian crisis. The fall of the Assad regime, while seen as an opportunity to limit Iranian influence, also raises concerns about the potential spread of militias or armed groups into unstable areas of Syria.

Saudi Arabia may thus seek to balance its relations with Syria with a strategic objective of stabilizing the region, while continuing to exert pressure on Iran through political and economic means. At the same time, Riyadh may play an active role in diplomatic mediation, to strengthen its relations with the various Syrian factions while working with Western powers to stabilize the country.

5.   United Arab Emirates: a pragmatic and balanced approach

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), for its part, is adopting a more pragmatic and balanced approach in responding to the fall of the Syrian regime. The Emirates restored relations with Damascus in 2018, marking a change in regional dynamics and a willingness to contribute to regional stability by working towards a dialogue approach with Syria.

This strategy allows them to maintain a certain influence in the Syrian political game, while seeking to limit the expansion of Iranian influence in the region. The Emirates are thus continuing diplomatic, economic and strategic efforts to strengthen their position in the regional game without engaging in direct clashes with their regional rivals. This more measured approach also aims to strengthen relations with the major Western powers and their regional partners.

6.   Towards increased cooperation despite differences

Despite the historical and political differences that have sometimes hindered unity within the Gulf monarchies, the fall of Assad seems to create a favorable dynamic for increased cooperation between these states. The common challenges posed by Syrian instability, the fight against Iranian influence and the need to stabilize the region are pushing these countries to put aside their differences for creating a common front.

This new dynamic could take the form of dialogue mechanisms, joint economic projects, or even new diplomatic initiatives aimed at promoting Syrian reconciliation and reconstruction. However, it remains to be seen whether these efforts will be able to overcome internal tensions, particularly between Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, and create a coherent and stable regional framework.

7.   A new regional balance is emerging

The fall of the Assad regime is thus leading to a reassessment of the political dynamics in the Persian Gulf, with each state seeking to navigate across this new geopolitical environment while protecting its own interests. For the Gulf monarchies, the objective is clear: to stabilize the region, avoid the spread of Iranian influence, support Syrian reconstruction and strengthen their respective positions in a context of regional strategic renewal.

The coming period will be crucial, as it could allow the Gulf monarchies to play a greater role in the Syrian dynamics, reaffirming their capacity to resolve their internal disputes and to impose themselves as key actors in reconstruction and diplomacy.

D.   IRAQ: PRO-IRANIAN MILITIAS FACING A NEW EQUILIBRIUM

The instability in Syria, especially with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, opens a new geopolitical chapter for Iraq and its pro-Iranian militias. These groups, especially those integrated within the Hashd al-Chaabi (or Popular Mobilization Units), could take advantage of this situation to consolidate their positions in the region, secure their supply routes, and strengthen their political and military legitimacy by increasing operations along the Iraq-Syria border. However, this dynamic is accompanied by many challenges and risks, especially due to the presence of Israel and the American stance on Iranian influence.

1.   Pro-Iranian militias and their strategy in Iraq

Pro-Iranian militias, particularly those that are part of the Hashd al-Shaabi, played a crucial role in the reoccupation of Iraqi territories that fell under the control of the Islamic State between 2014 and 2018. Their effectiveness in these operations consolidated their status as military and political actors in Iraq, giving them legitimacy among certain Shiite political factions.

Faced with domestic and regional challenges, these militias now see the Syrian situation as an opportunity to strengthen their capabilities. By securing the Iraqi-Syrian border, they aim not only to prevent the return of terrorist groups, but also to create a strategic corridor that allows them to facilitate trade with their regional allies, particularly Iran. Such efforts could increase their control in the region, consolidating their interests in an unstable regional context.

However, their strategic ambitions must be balanced by broader political and security stances. The increased interference in the Syrian dynamic risks attracting negative reactions from rival powers and Western states, especially Israel.

2.   Iraq in a new regional order

The impact of the Syrian situation on Iraq goes beyond simple militia dynamics. The new regional balance, marked by the collapse of the Assad regime, the rise of rival powers, and Tehran’s desire to strengthen its influence, places Iraq at the center of new strategic maneuvers. Therefore, pro-Iranian militias could not only increase their military prerogatives, but could also play a key role in the internal political dynamics in Iraq, strengthening their partnership with Iran to operate in this new environment.

Shortly, while pro-Iranian militias have the opportunity to expand their legitimacy and capabilities through Syrian instability, they also face major challenges: Israeli actions, the Trump administration’s stance, domestic pressures in Iraq, and regional uncertainties. The ability of these militias to adapt and avoid an escalation in their actions could determine their future in the region and beyond their role in the new strategic balance in the Middle East.

E.   TURKEY: A KEY PLAYER ON THE RISE

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime represents a major strategic turning point for Turkey, with consequences that extend to its domestic politics, regional strategy and international relations, as well. In front of this new regional configuration, Ankara finds itself facing several major challenges, particularly the management of the Syrian refugee issue, the intensification of its military operations in Syria and its relations with Western and regional powers.

1.   The case of Syrian refugees at the heart of the domestic debate

Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict, Turkey has hosted around 3 million Syrian refugees on its territory, due to its geographical proximity to Syria and its initial “open door policy”. However, this situation has created internal, economic and political tensions in a country that is already facing structural economic challenges.

The fall of the Assad regime has revived this debate. The question of the possible return of these refugees to Syria is now at the heart of political and social concerns in Turkey. For a long time, a divisive issue, it now enjoys broad consensus among both the Turkish population and political leaders, particularly due to the need to disengage the country from this humanitarian crisis and reduce social pressures.

Ankara hopes now to facilitate the return of refugees as part of a reconstruction plan in Syria, with the support of the international community. However, these projects face several obstacles, including the ongoing insecurity in many Syrian regions, the lack of adequate infrastructure, and political rivalries between local groups and foreign powers.

Turkey will therefore have to navigate a delicate balance between the domestic imperatives related to integrating and resettling these refugees and its international obligations, seeking to avoid any rush in the return process.

2.   Turkish military operations and ambitions in Syria

The fall of the Syrian regime also gives new impetus to Turkey’s military ambitions in northeastern Syria. For several years, Ankara has supported rebel groups and conducted military operations to secure its borders and weaken groups it considers threats to its national security, namely groups linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Syrian forces allied with the United States.

On the ground, the advance of Turkish army auxiliary troops in northeastern Syria, often composed by Syrian opposition groups, could intensify after the fall of Assad. These maneuvers are intended to create a security buffer zone to counter Kurdish threats and to ensure the potential stability of the Turkish-Syrian border. However, these actions are not without friction. The United States and Iraq have expressed concerns about regional stability, especially in the Iraq-Syria border area, where Turkey is seeking to expand its influence.

The intensification of these operations may also be criticized by the international community, especially because of the risks of a resurgence of extremist groups such as the Islamic State (IS) in these destabilized areas. Therefore, Turkey will have to manage these operations with increased caution to avoid a new surge of extremism in a region already ravaged by multifaceted conflicts.

3.   Expanding the buffer zone: a risky strategy

In this context, Ankara is considering strengthening its buffer zone in Syria. The strategy aims to create a safe region under Turkish control where refugees can be resettled, preventing the expansion of hostile groups such as Kurdish militias or ISIS. However, this expansion would involve new negotiations with Western powers, especially the United States, and with other regional players such as Iran.

Managing such a buffer zone is complex, requiring not only military cooperation but also broad diplomatic and economic support. Western powers, especially the United States, may see these actions as a challenge to their influence in the region, while Iran remains a key player with its own strategic ambitions in Syria.

Therefore, Turkey will have to maneuver skillfully in this strategic game, balancing its security interests, its relations with its international partners, and its ambitions to stabilize the region through mechanisms of military control.

4.   The resurgence of the Islamic State: a major concern

The possible resurgence of the Islamic State in this new regional balance remains a major concern for Ankara. Although ISIS has lost most of its territory in Syria and Iraq, the current security vacuum, especially in northeastern Syria, could allow the terrorist group to rise from the ashes.

Thus, Turkey faces a dual challenge: securing its borders by preventing the resurgence of ISIS, while managing its relations with Western powers in this context of security fragility. In this context, Turkish military operations in the region can be seen as a means of preventing attacks by the Islamic State and assuring the presence of its authority in an increasingly complex environment.

5.   Towards a strategically reoriented Turkey

The fall of the Assad regime and the new dynamics in Syria require Ankara to reorient its strategy on several levels: managing refugees, securing its borders, consolidating its military operations in northeastern Syria, and expanding its buffer zone. At the same time, Turkey will need to maintain a delicate balance with its Western allies, especially in the context of its regional ambitions and tense relations with the United States.

In this new environment, Turkey emerges as a key and central, but rapidly growing, player seeking to strengthen its regional influence while avoiding international isolation. The evolution of its strategy in this context will determine not only its role in the reconstruction of Syria, but also its important positioning in the new geopolitical balance of the Middle East.

F.   KURDISH TERRITORIES OF NORTHEASTERN SYRIA: AMONG STRATEGIC THREATS AND CHALLENGES

The Kurdish regions in northeastern Syria, mostly grouped under the name “Rojava”, after the fall of the Syrian regime find themselves at the heart of a complex game of geopolitical dynamics. These territories, already weakened by the multi-year conflict, are facing additional major threats, due to the advancement of auxiliary troops of the Turkish army, which are pursuing their security objectives in this strategic region.

1.   A potentially destabilizing Turkish military advance

In the context of the fall of the Assad regime and the ongoing geopolitical recompositions, Turkey is intensifying its operations in northeastern Syria. These operations rely on the use of local proxies (Syrian rebel groups supported by Ankara) and aim to create a safe defensive zone to limit the influence of Kurdish groups in the region. Since the start of its military operations in 2016, Ankara has consolidated its presence in key regions, seeking to weaken the armed wing of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and its local allies.

The 1998 agreement with Hafez al-Assad, often referred to as the Adana Agreement, allowed Turkey to create a de facto buffer zone on the Syrian border, weakening the PKK’s capabilities in southeastern Turkey. With the collapse of the Assad regime and the creation of a security vacuum, Ankara sees opportunities to expand this buffer zone, based on its military operations and its support for local rebel groups.

But, intensifying these operations could also be dangerous, especially taking into consideration the emergency of maintaining stability in the Iraqi-Syrian border area, required by Baghdad and the United States. This stability is essential to prevent regional instability from creating new spaces that could be exploited by groups such as the Islamic State (IS), which is seeking to regroup and re-emerge in the context of a deteriorating security situation.

2.   The Kurds’ position in the face of these challenges

The Kurds, especially those of the Rojava Autonomous Administration, face major challenges with this Turkish advance. Indeed, their autonomy in northeastern Syria is constantly threatened by Ankara’s ambitions, which seeks to dismantle their territorial control. This dynamic places Kurdish forces in a particularly vulnerable position, due to their dependence on Western powers such as the United States, but also because of their fight against the Islamic State.

The Kurds managed to impose themselves as a key force in the fight against the Islamic State in the years 2014-2019, particularly thanks to the help of the international coalition. However, their relationship with Western powers is complex, characterized by ad hoc cooperation but also strategic divergences with the United States and its allies in the region. This factor has left the Kurds in a delicate situation in front of Turkish operations, which are aimed not only at neutralizing the PKK but also at weakening the political and military autonomy of Rojava.

3.   Western interests in the region: a precarious balance

Turkey is seeking to consolidate its position in northeastern Syria by exploiting the security vacuum to increase its influence. However, it must deal with Western strategic interests in the region, especially in the context of a Syrian context that remains unstable and is likely to favor the reemergence of the Islamic State.

The United States and its Western partners have provided military support to Kurdish forces in their fight against ISIS, helping to contain the group in several key regions. This dynamic creates pressure on Turkey, which wants to weaken Kurdish capabilities while limiting the risk that regional instability could pave the way for the resurgence of ISIS. The desire to maintain stability while respecting strategic alliances with Turkey remains a difficult balance for Western powers to maintain it.

The dynamic is further complicated by the fact that Turkey and its Western allies sometimes have different visions on the stabilization strategy in the region, particularly to the importance that Ankara attaches to military operations against Kurdish militias, while the West remains focused on the fight against ISIS and political stabilization.

4.   The future of Rojava and its strategic challenges

Faced with Turkish threats, the Kurds must carefully navigate between several emergencies: preserving their political autonomy, strengthening their cooperation with the United States and the international coalition, and resisting Ankara’s military advances. The future of Rojava will depend on their ability to balance their relations with their Western allies and strengthen their governing and defense capacities in front of security challenges and political ones.

The situation in northeastern Syria therefore remains unstable, characterized by competing ambitions, geopolitical rivalries, and internal militant dynamics. The Kurds, while continuing to fight the Islamic State, must also prepare a more political and less military response to Turkish expansionist ambitions while seeking mechanisms for dialogue with their Western partners to avoid strategic isolation in an increasingly unstable environment.

Turkey, for its part, will need to navigate within the same dynamic with clear strategic calculations, integrating pressure from the United States, Iraq, and its own internal security objectives into a delicate balance.

G.   JORDAN: GROWING CONCERNS

Jordan, located on Syria’s western border, remains a key player in the current regional dynamic. Faced with the turmoil caused by the fall of the Syrian regime and the rise of groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in several regions, Amman sees this situation as a potential risk factor for its internal stability.

1.   Growing Islamist influence

Jordan is particularly concerned about the growing Islamist influence in Syria. HTS, which is a group that emerged from Syrian jihadist groups and is strongly rooted in Idlib province, represents a destabilizing factor in the region. This increase in power is seen as a worrying signal for Jordan, which has faced internal challenges related to Islamist dynamics in the past.

There is also concern that these groups could expand their influence into border areas or encourage factions of their followers within Jordan itself. Such a dynamic would have significant political and security implications, especially given the historical ties and existing cross-border networks in the region.

2.   Legislative elections and the strengthening of the Islamic Action Front

Another important factor is the political growth of internal Islamist groups in Jordan. In the September 2024 legislative elections, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), the country’s main Islamist party, won a significant number of seats. This victory is largely attributed to popular discontent generated by the war against Hamas, growing economic difficulties, and the perception that the current government’s policies have failed to meet the social aspirations of the population.

Even if political stability remains globally ensured by the traditional weight of Jordanian tribes in the internal balance, this electoral dynamic indicates increased polarization and a rise in Islamist influence, which, according to some analysts, could weaken state control in some regions. The potential impact of these changes could disrupt the kingdom’s internal political balances, especially in the western region bordering Syria.

3.   Pressures on the Syrian Border

Jordan faces increasing security and migration pressures on its western border, with the continued flow of Syrian refugees and the dynamics of the constant evolving regional conflict. The fall of the Syrian regime has brought new security uncertainties along this border, particularly with the increased presence of Islamist groups and their potential efforts to infiltrate the region.

In this context, Jordan will need to strengthen its control capacities while avoiding compromising its relations with foreign powers, particularly the United States and members of the international coalition. At the same time, the kingdom must continue to balance its efforts to limit migratory pressures while maintaining its domestic political stability.

4.   Towards a precarious balance

The combination of growing Islamist influence in Syria, domestic concerns over the election results, and cross-border dynamics places Jordan in a delicate position. The authorities must carefully maneuver between preserving their domestic political interests, securing their borders, and managing their relations with regional and international actors.

Thus, while Jordan remains a key player in regional stability, it must also navigate this complex context with caution, where rising tensions in Syria, combined with domestic challenges, could compromise its fragile balances.

H.   ISRAEL: A DECISIVE PLAYER IN A SHAKEN MIDDLE EAST

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime represents a major strategic upheaval for Israel, defining a turning point in the regional dynamics to which the country must adapt. Israel remains one of the most attentive actors to developments in Syria, particularly due to its security concerns, geostrategic ambitions, and its rivalries with Iran. After the overthrow of the Assad regime, Israel's position, in this new context, appears on several geopolitical axes.

1.   A security opportunity: weakening Iran

For several years, Israel has considered Iran one of its main strategic threats, due to Iranian support for Shiite militias in Syria, Lebanon and other parts of the Middle East. The collapse of the Syrian regime, along with the withdrawal of some of Assad’s traditional military support capabilities, weakens Iran’s position in the region.

Israel has undertaken uninterrupted military operations in Syria to paralyze Iranian influence. The strikes have targeted weapons depots, military positions and arms transfers destined for Hezbollah, which enjoys Tehran’s support. This dynamic has helped weaken the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis, while giving Israel strategic space to maneuver for countering Iranian influence.

With the collapse of the Assad regime and the resulting security vacuum, Israel may seek to strengthen this dynamic by consolidating its positions on the ground and maintaining constant pressure on Iranian-backed groups. However, this strategy carries risks, especially due to the complexity of regional dynamics and the ongoing instability in some Syrian regions.

In his recent statements, following the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah, Benjamin Netanyahu has promised to maintain constant pressure on Iran and its militias in order to prevent any military or strategic reinforcement in the region. This strategy of destabilization and deterrence has exacerbated Iranian vulnerability, which will now have to maneuver between internal and external pressures simultaneously.

2.   An opportunity to control the Iran-Syria axis

The fall of the Assad regime also weakens the traditional axis of cooperation between Iran and Syria. Israel sees this dynamic as an opportunity to limit the expansion of Tehran-backed groups in Syria, strengthening its ability to operate militarily in the region without having to face a resilient and consolidated Syrian regime.

By controlling the situation in key regions, including through targeted military strikes, Israel is seeking to prevent the creation of a land corridor connecting Iran to Lebanon, which would be an important strategic lever for Tehran. This corridor is seen as a key factor in Iran’s regional expansion strategy, and its neutralization remains one of Israel’s strategic priorities.

In this context, the fall of the Assad regime gives Israel a better opportunity to strengthen its military position and relations with regional partners, such as Turkey or even some moderate Arab countries, while continuing its actions against Iran.

3.   Relations with the United States and Western allies

Israel’s strategic position is also influenced by relations with the United States and its policies towards the region after the fall of the Syrian regime. The United States, with its partial withdrawal and pragmatic approach to the region, supports Israel in its determination to contain Iran while seeking to stabilize the situation in Syria through diplomatic and military means.

Israel is now recalibrating its priorities in this new environment. With the Iranian threat as a backdrop, Israel wants to maintain a strategic balance in cooperation with the United States and other Western powers, while demonstrating its ability to take independent military action for protecting its interests.

4.   Domestic challenges: maintaining security and responding to regional tensions

The situation following the fall of the Assad regime also presents domestic challenges for Israel. The security vacuum in Syria, especially in some regions near its borders, could allow a resurgence of extremist groups or new hostile factions. Israel will need to closely monitor developments in the Golan Heights, a strategic region bordering Syria, where extremist groups could benefit from the regional chaos.

Israel will also need to remain vigilant to internal dynamics within its Arab neighbors. The fall of Assad could open up new spaces for extremist groups or cross-border conflicts. This situation, combined with Iran's ambitions to maintain a regional presence, forces Israel to strengthen its surveillance and military capabilities to meet new security challenges.

5.   Israel: A player to watch

Israel remains one of the main obstacles to pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. For several years, the Jewish state has undertaken military operations aimed at weakening Iranian influence in the region, including striking Iranian-linked military targets in Syria. However, these operations are not limited to Syria. Israel has already carried out strikes in Syria, targeting weapons depots, militia centers, and military infrastructure attributed to groups backed by Tehran. The buffer zone is no longer taboo because the Israeli forces have crossed the border into the Golan Heights, moving significantly closer to the capital, Damascus.

In this context, the collapse of the Syrian regime and the resulting instability could encourage Israel to intensify its military operations in Iraq, given that the Iran-Syria-Iraq axis poses a strategic threat. The Trump administration, while more aggressive towards Iran than some of its predecessors, has also shown determination towards a gradual US disengagement and support for actions aimed at containing Iranian influence in the region.

This dynamic creates a particularly fragile environment for pro-Iranian militias. Their desire to secure their strategic objectives could conflict with Israeli and American positions, which remain determined to limit the expansion of Iranian influence.

In this new regional environment marked by the collapse of the Syrian regime, Israel is adapting a pragmatic strategy, combining targeted military actions with enhanced diplomatic cooperation. Israel’s objective remains clear: to contain Iran, weaken its regional backers, and maintain its military and security superiority, while taking advantage of the vacuum created by Assad’s fall for reshaping its strategic positions.

This strategy, however, faces uncertainties in the region. Israel will have to manage not only the rise of Islamist groups like HTS, but also the broader dynamics of regional competition, including powers like the United States, Russia, Turkey, and Iran. Through its capacity for foresight, military preparedness, and alliances, Israel remains a key player in this complex context, determined to secure its strategic interests in a Middle East in full restructuring.

CONCLUSION: A NEW REGIONAL EQUILIBRIUM

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks the end of a political era in the Middle East and paves the way for an extremely complex geopolitical recomposition. This major upheaval, which resulted through a combination of internal efforts, foreign intervention, and regional dynamics, has profoundly altered the balance of power in the region. However, despite this symbolic shift, stability is still precarious and many challenges remain.

The demise of the Syrian regime, as it was known, does not mean the end of conflicts or the solution of historical crises. Syria remains a fragmented country, with rebel groups, militias, foreign powers, and sectarian dynamics that will continue to shape its future. In this sense, Assad’s fall is not an end point, but a new chapter in a civil war that remains marked by diverse interests and multiple geopolitical ambitions.

More broadly, this situation is leading to a repositioning of regional and international players. Turkey, Iran, Israel, the United States, Russia, and other powers all have overlapping and sometimes conflicting interests, generating new tensions and new alliances in an already unstable regional context. This dynamic is redrawing the boundaries of influence, while placing the fight against extremist groups such as the Islamic State at the center of strategic priorities.

Moreover, it seems that the fall of the Assad regime could have consequences for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, even if the latter risks falling into the background in a context where regional stability remains fragile. The priorities of many powers are now oriented towards reconstruction, militia management, and security stabilization, reducing attention to the Palestinian issue. This situation underscores the need to remember the historical dimensions of the conflict while taking into account new geopolitical realities.

In short, while the fall of the Syrian regime represents a decisive turning point, it constitutes neither a solution nor a new established order. On the contrary, it creates a new regional equilibrium, where ambitions, alliances, power struggles, and political aspirations will continue to shape the Middle East. Stability and peace in the region will depend on the ability of regional and international powers to manage these dynamics with pragmatism, cooperation, and long-term strategic vision.

* Arben P. Cici Ambassador, Pro-rector, Mediterranean University of Albania