Albanian Daily News had an extensive interview with Ms. Biljana Vankovska, political scientist, full professor and Head of MA Program in Peace and Development at the Faculty of Philosophy, University of Skopje. Professor Vankovska, who was in Albania to attend the Forum “China and the Western Balkans in 2022: challenges, opportunities and potential cooperation” organized by the Albanian Institute for Globalization Studies in Tirana on November 21, 2022, dwelt on the relations between Albania and North Macedonia, the situation in the Western Balkans and its EU accession perspective, the troubled relationship between North Macedonia and Bulgaria. 

In a comment on the joint meeting of Albanian and North Macedonian governments held in Skopje on November 14, 2022 Professor Vankovska said, “In short, we need visible changes rather than political shows that picture good neighborly relations.”   

According to her, Macedonia was again, just like in the case of name change in 2018/2019, squeezed between the nationalist demands of its more powerful neighbor and its support from Brussels. “Hence Macedonia is enforced not only to change its history books and education framework but also to alter the Constitution in order to appease the Bulgarian appetites.”

Further Professor Vankovska, who is regular guest in the Macedonian and Balkan media, columnist for a Macedonian daily and for the Serbian portal Pescanik, was of the opinion that the Kosovo-Serbia conflict on car license plates looks like a trivial issue but obviously it is just the peak of a huge iceberg – the unresolved conflict between Belgrade and Prishtina.

In the meantime the Macedonian political scientist was pessimistic about the EU integration process of Albania and North Macedonia and the WB countries in general. “We are in a stalemate because the EU/West has other priorities and worries. Even if that is not the case, membership into today’s (destabilized and economically weakened) EU won’t bring much of what has been hoped by the citizens of the Western Balkans,” political scientist Biljana

Vankovska in the following interview:

Albanian Daily News:At the outset, Professor, thank you for this interview with Albanian Daily News and its readers will be eager to learn from you about the current political situation in North Macedonia, its foreign policy, the situation in WB and other issues worldwide. Albanian and North Macedonian governments held the second joint meeting in Skopje on November 14, 2022. First, how do you assess this initiative and secondly, do you expect that such a practice will deliver?

Professor Biljana Vankovska: Let’s recall that this is not the first joint session of the two governments. Furthermore, the Macedonian government has had such meetings with the other neighboring governments, such as Bulgaria, Serbia and Kosovo. This has become a regular practice in the region, red carpets, press conferences, statements and memorandums for better cooperation, etc. The real question is: what are the effects of these apparently close relationships between the political elites that hardly cope with their internal legitimacy and amassed problems? For instance, a few days ago I traveled by car from Skopje to Tirana. While the Kosovo-Albania border works efficiently with one police checkpoint, on the Macedonian-Albanian border (equally on the Macedonian-Serbian one) there is such a waste of time despite the fact that we cross the border with personal ID. In short, we need visible changes rather than political shows that picture good neighborly relations. 

- Let me turn, Professor, to the ongoing dispute between North Macedonia and Bulgaria. Sofia insists that the Macedonian identity and language have a Bulgarian origin. Do you think that the recent French proposal might contribute to resolving the dispute between the two countries?

- On the contrary! The so-called French proposal is now enshrined in the formal negotiation framework of the EU, and paradoxically it assumes that North Macedonia should fulfil all Bulgarian irrational identity demands. In short, the EU disregarded its own self-proclaimed ‘European values’ for the sake of the apparently ongoing enlargement process in the Western Balkans. North Macedonia was again, just like in the case of name change in 2018/2019, squeezed between the nationalist demands of its more powerful neighbor and its support from Brussels. Hence North Macedonia is enforced not only to change its history books and education framework but also to alter the Constitution in order to appease the Bulgarian appetites. These external pressures strongly affect the internal stability and give rise to Euroscepticism. The latest honest statement of the Portuguese Prime Minister actually proves that EU enlargement is just a chimera, a promise that cannot be kept. Also the photo showing the EU commissionaire Varhelyi addressing the empty hall of the European Parliament speaks volumes of how the enlargement process was treated at this geopolitical juncture. Personally, I am much more in favor of development of confidence building and regional cooperation in the Balkans rather than expecting to join the EU, wish is not what it used to be. It can hardly manage its internal problems and the diverging interests among its member-states.     

- In the meantime, Bulgaria has voiced concern over the rights of ethnic Bulgarians in North Macedonia after authorities in Skopje passed law changes compelling Bulgarian associations named after Nazi collaborators to change their names. How do you assess such a stance?

- The Macedonian government should have prevented such developments at the very start because there had been a legal ground in the legal system even prior to these initiatives. Now, it reacts post festum and gives an opportunity to Sofia to protest. Nazism and Nazi collaborators and symbols are incompatible with the narrative of peaceful and democratic Europe, aren’t they? And this principle should apply to all and everywhere – if we don’t want to repeat the darkest times of Europe’s past. In my view, Sofia authorities haven’t finished their homework in terms of dealing with the dark corners of their country’s past.    

- Let me touch, please, upon the situation in the Western Balkans, which continues to be tense in different forms. How much has the Russian aggression against Ukraine influenced the aggravation of the situation, particularly between Kosovo and Serbia? According to you, might the new French-German initiative bring about a resolution to the conflict between them as Serbs in northern Kosovo have quit state jobs, including parliament?

- The root causes of the regional conflicts should be sought in the region rather than seeing Russians (or Chinese) everywhere. The tense situation in the northern part of Kosovo has been existent for a long time, since it is a part of a frozen conflict. The same applies to Republika Srpska and B&H. The problem is in the fact that the so-called international community (i.e. the Western state-builders) has produced unviable ‘solutions’ almost everywhere in the region. The answers to the military crises were focused on violence prevention but not peace flourishing through development and overcoming the trauma from the recent past. Unfortunately, now that the geopolitics is back in Europe, the peaceful conflict resolution is set aside at the expense of the geopolitical chess party. Yet, it is important to keep in mind that Russia is too busy to meddle in the Balkans, but the same is true for the European powers. It means we will have to cope with our problems as well and efficiently as possible, unless we want to be pawns in a big game. I frequently recall a thought of a wise man, the Montenegrin king Nikola, who said that the Balkans is the small change in the transactions of the Great Powers.   

- Can it be said that the question of the license plates is the core of the aggravation of the Kosovo-Serb conflict when such a change of them as demanded by official Pristina is stipulated by the accords mediated by the EU? And as a follow up, how do you consider the stance of the EU and the US to put off this accord and press Pristina to allow the establishment of the Association of Serb Municipalities in northern Kosovo?

- At a glance, the car license plates looks like a trivial issue but obviously it is just the tip of a huge iceberg – the unresolved conflict between Belgrade and Prishtina. Under certain circumstances it could produce a dangerous spark, as we could witness on several occasions. For me personally the recent statement of Josep Borrell is a confirmation of the diagnosis I already gave here, i.e. a confirmation that the EU/West rest on stabilitocracy led by rascals on power rather than on principles and values. In the context of this latest crisis he said (I am paraphrasing): rule of law principle is not worth conflict escalation. It sounds as if the EU is ready to sacrifice (again) the principles it preaches because of some sort of stability/avoidance of escalation. It is because the EU is impotent and unable to provide a credible support and future for the entire region. I am afraid we are still a part of the old, historical ‘troublesome frontier’ (periphery) of the West; hence the policy of double standards is applied whenever Brussels thinks it is useful for European interests.   

- A few weeks ago a summit in the frame of the Berlin Process was held in the German capital with Chancellor Scholz pledging a revival of the initiative. Do you think that such a move devalues the Open Balkans as its platform in general is similar to the objectives of the German initiative, and on the other hand all 6 WB countries participate in it while only 3 countries are part of the Open Balkans?

- Chancellor Scholz’s commitment to the Western Balkans is lip service, I am afraid. He is parroting the same old narrative with no concrete initiatives or realistic outcomes. The Open Balkans, as you rightly point out, is also an initiative, which is in a limbo due to the fact the region is still burdened by the unhealed wounds from the recent past and in absence of any concrete vision of socio-economic development. No wonder the general public, but also the expert community, is puzzled by the mixed signals from Brussels, Berlin or Washington.

- Albania and North Macedonia have already taken the okay for the start of the intergovernmental talks with the EU, but no concrete moves have been undertaken by Brussels to initiate the process. Will the two countries continue to be in the waiting room against another background when a new initiative is launched in the frame of the European Political Community? Certainly, Albania and North Macedonia are part of it.

- Anyone who is familiar with the history of EU integration knows that the political dimension of integration followed decades of economic integration and cooperation among the European states. Here we witness a top-bottom approach in the form of EPC. Clearly, this is just a consolation prize for the candidate countries that would never be equals in the political (or should I say, geopolitical) consultations. Also this is a way to discipline and keep control over the region that is not fully integrated in the EU – and I am afraid, it will never be. Finally, president Macron wanted to create an impression that something is going on, that the EU idea is not (brain) dead. When it comes to the accession process of Albania and Macedonia, as seen from Skopje, we envy you that you got a clear start, while here we need to first amend the Constitution and include the Bulgarians as a constitutive people of the State. Allegedly the screening process is ongoing (as if we don’t know what the state’s deficiencies in terms of Copenhagen criteria are), but the ‘real beginning’ should follow the constitutional revision, which looks either as a mission impossible due to the political parties power balance – or as a potential new criminal and scandalous endeavor as it was the case with the Prespa Agreement, which was constitutionalized through corruption and political coercion. If we push aside the specificities related to the Macedonian case, I fully agree with your conclusion that there have been no concrete moves. I am sorry for my pessimism, but somehow I tend to believe the Portuguese prime minister that the EU is just a pipe dream at the current geopolitical and economic crisis situation. We are in a stalemate because the EU/West has other priorities and worries. Even if that is not the case, membership into today’s (destabilized and economically weakened) EU won’t bring much of what has been hoped by the citizens of the Western Balkans.     

- Speaking in terms of the global situation in the world. The impact of the pandemic has not vanished and the world is being faced with another threat: the energy crisis. In addition to the ‘hot war’ because of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the tension in the relations between the US and China is rising with elements of the Cold War in it. Is the world, Professor, being faced with the threat of a global war taking into consideration the threat of Russia to use nuclear weapons in its invasion of Ukraine?

- I published a scholarly article on the Cold War 2.0 in 2014, right after the Euromaidan in Ukraine. At that time, many analysts referred to a potential revival of a new cold war between the West and Russia. Now the focus is more on China as we could witness at the latest NATO Summit. However, my conclusion then has not changed a lot: the Cold war period was just a fig leaf that covered the imperial relations and fractures between the great powers; it only took a specific form for several decades, which hid the other divisions and confronting interests. Nothing has radically changed in the world where every great power tends to promote its own national interests while talking softly and spreading a narrative of global peace and democracy (‘end of history’), and occasionally bomb a country to a democracy. What has indeed changed is the balance of (economic and even cultural) power. The USA is faced with losing its global supremacy/hegemony especially in the economic field. It is interesting that the rise of China is seen as a security threat as well as its ability to use soft power across the globe. I wish I was wrong with my prognosis that Taiwan may (under certain circumstances) become a ‘second Ukraine’. The tragedy of the Ukrainian war is in the fact that it was the most predictable and easily preventable war. Russia is indeed an aggressor, but the war was not unprovoked. Here I agree with Prof. John Mearsheimer and some other colleagues (despite the fact that this is politically incorrect to say these days). The proxy war in Ukraine is between the West and Russia, and it has earthshaking implications for the global economic order, financial market, energy supplies, etc. The entire world is affected. Surely, the highest prize (in human lives and mass destruction) is paid by Ukraine that has been turned into a battlefield. If the worst comes to the worst, I am afraid that Russia won’t use nuclear weapons against targets in Ukraine but elsewhere – and that would be the beginning of the end of humankind as we know it. The inhumane nature of nuclear war is simple: there cannot be just one actor to use the doomsday weapon. I am sure both Moscow and Washington are aware of this fact. Now we all badly need at least one rational actor to serve as a peace mediator between Moscow and Kiev. The armistice is the least we can expect because the war toll is already far too high.