Albania’s Population Shrinks to Less than Three Million

INSTAT reported that the population of the country on January 1, 2022 was 2,793,593 persons with a decrease of 1.3% from 2020. This performance is more negative than the pessimistic scenario of INSTAT projections for the Population performance 2019-2030. 

INSTAT updates its population projections once every five years, as it conducts a census counting people living within the country once every 10 years. The population census is expected to take place in the fall of this year. 

In 2019 INSTAT published new projections of population performance 2019-2031, where in 2022 the country's population according to the pessimistic scenario should have been over 2,843,473 people, but the real performance annual indicators show almost 50 thousand people less, while measurements by census are expected to make this indicator worse. 

The population of Albania in 2031, according to updated projections, is estimated to be 2,745,996 inhabitants. This number is about 36 thousand inhabitants less compared to the number of population in the Population Projections 2011 - 2031. But the annual estimates have shown a greater decrease, thus lowering the projections. 

The population of our country is shrinking at a faster pace than the European experiences in this field. The country's businesses and economy are for the first time facing the phenomenon of labor shortage. One of the causes of population shrinkage is the high rates of emigration. For 2021 the net emigration was over 42 thousand people. https://www.monitor.al/popullsia-e-shqiperise-tkurret-ne-2-79-milione-banore-ne-2021-rritje-e-ndjeshme-e-emigracionit-ikin-42-mije-persona/ 

Immigration has shattered INSTAT projections, which did not predict that the phenomenon would remain so high, or even worsen after 30 years of emigration. 

Population estimates on January 1, 2022 show that only one county of the country marks population growth, compared to a year ago, while the other eleven counties marked population decline. 

The increase was recorded in Tirana (+ 0.8%). In contrast, the largest population declines were recorded in the regions: Gjirokastra (-4.7%), Berat (-3.7%) and Debar (-3.6%). The region with the highest youth dependency ratio is Kukes (33.5%), which also results as the region with the highest elderly dependency ratio (26.2%), followed by the Lezha region me (26.1%). 

On January 1, 2022 Tirana occupies about 32.9% of the total population, continuing to be one of the most populous regions of the country, followed by Durrës and Fier with 10.4% and 10.0% respectively. As for the other counties, five of them occupy respectively from 2% to 5% of the total population. 

(Source: Monitor)