Fertility deteriorated throughout Europe during 2019, while Albania is among the countries with the weakest fertility index in the continent. According to Eurostat data, in 2019, 4.17 million babies were born throughout the European Union, continuing a downward trend that began after 2008, when 4.68 million babies were born in the EU. The total fertility rate was 1.53 births per woman in the EU in 2019, a slight decrease from its last peak in 2016 (1.57), however, an increase compared to 2001 (1.43). 

In Albania, the fertility index was lower than the EU average with only 1.36 from 1.37 that was in 2018 and with a significant deterioration since 2000, where this indicator was 1.9. The fertility index below 2.1 indicates that the population is below the replacement rate and is heading towards decline. Albania has lost the replacement rate for years, while in Europe this process has been slower. 

In the Region, Serbia and Montenegro had a better fertility index than Albania at 1.52 and 1.77, respectively. In 2019, France had the highest fertility rate with 1.86 live births per woman and was the Member State with the highest fertility rate in the EU, followed by Romania (1.77), the Czech Republic, Ireland and Sweden (all three 1.71 ) and Denmark (1.70). In contrast, the lowest fertility rates were observed in Malta (1.14 births per woman), Spain (1.23), Italy (1.27), Cyprus (1.33), Greece and Luxembourg (both 1.34) and Albania with 1.36. 

In our country, during the period 2011 - 2020 births nationwide have decreased by 18%. Out of 34,285 babies born in 2011 in Albania, in 2020, there were 28,075 babies born. Kukes region marked the largest decline in the country. Over the last decade in the Northeastern prefecture fertility has declined by 37.8 percent. 

After Kukës, the largest decline in fertility during the last decade has been marked by the Region of Berat with 34.3%. Gjirokastra ranks third for the largest decline in fertility with 32.2% and then Vlora with over 31% for the same period. In contrast, Tirana and Durrës had the lowest birth rates decline with -1.6 and -12.0%, respectively. These two counties, although declining in births, have positive natural population increases due to shifts from other districts towards them. 

As a result of this situation, demographic developments are taking place according to pessimistic scenarios of population projections. According to the latest revision for the period 2019-2031, in the pessimistic scenario, the fertility index for a woman in 2019 was 1.36 the same as in the scenario pessimistic, but in the future, the indicator may deteriorate beyond this scenario because indirect polls show that emigration in the last decade has been higher than expected. 

Eastern European countries experienced declining fertility during the 1990s and 2000s when the Synthetic Fertilization Index (ISF) reached very low levels. The most extreme cases are those of Bulgaria (1.09 children per woman) and the Czech Republic (1.13 children per woman), for the rest of the Eastern European countries the ISF reached the minimum, around the value of 1.2 births per woman. In the hypothesis of low fertility in Albania, it is thought that ISF will reach level 1.2 in 2031, but real developments are showing that this level will be reached before this year.

(Source: Monitor)