The economic future of Albania and the entire Western Balkans region will be determined by how today’s young people are given real opportunities to create, find employment and remain here, in our countries, making use of the path toward the European Union rather than merely dreaming of a future elsewhere. This requires a clear vision for integrating young people into the modern economy.

– THE SITUATION OF YOUTH TODAY: FACING UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE CHALLENGE OF INTEGRATION

The Albanian economy in 2024–2025 has maintained good development momentum, with GDP growth of around 4%, driven by strong domestic demand and tourism, which remains a key sector. Inflation has fallen below the Central Bank’s target, while fiscal consolidation has accelerated, indicating a more responsible approach to public finances. However, government revenues as a percentage of GDP remain relatively low, and public investment is sometimes not realized at the planned rate. Despite the progress made, the country is facing a deep demographic and social crisis, which has already had a significant impact on young people. This is clearly reflected in the decline in the number of students completing secondary education and in the massive emigration of youth.

Thus, alongside macroeconomic growth, the situation of young people remains in constant flux. Youth unemployment in Albania reached 19% in 2024, the lowest level in almost a decade, while the EU average stands at 11.2%. Within this figure, the rate of young people classified as NEET (not in education, employment or training) is around 22.2% of the population aged 15–29. However, there are also positive signs: the youth employment rate increased to 44.4% in 2024, from 41.9% in 2023, while youth participation in the labor force rose from 45.7% in 2016 to 54.8% in 2024.

The main challenge, however, remains youth emigration. Recent surveys show that 36.5% of young Albanians express a desire to emigrate in search of better jobs and living conditions abroad, and among those with higher education this percentage is even higher. This “brain drain” deprives the country of its most valuable human capital – educated young people who could serve as the engine of development and innovation. According to INSTAT and Eurostat, the 0–29 age group has shrunk by 44% since 2011, with over 600,000 young people having emigrated. This trend is not an isolated phenomenon, but the result of a series of interconnected economic, social, demographic and political factors that directly affect the country’s long-term development.

Faced with these challenges, Albania has launched several important initiatives. The Youth Guarantee Program, launched in 2023, offers a job, training or education opportunity within four months to young people who register as unemployed. This program, which began with pilot projects in three cities (Tirana, Shkodra and Vlora), is being expanded and refined to ensure broader inclusion of young people. According to the Partner Albania “Monitoring Report 2024”, during the pilot phase (November 2023 – December 2024): 560 young NEETs were registered in the program; 414 young people (74%) were successfully integrated; 242 young people were employed through job mediation services; 145 young people benefited from training opportunities; and 27 young people were included in educational programs. These results are encouraging and need to be scaled up to make a substantial impact on youth unemployment.

The massive emigration of young people aged 19–40 is considered a structural loss and represents one of the most serious challenges for Albania’s future. The main reasons include the lack of decent and well-paid jobs; the absence of meritocracy and trust in institutions; the low quality of public services; and uncertainty about personal and professional prospects. This emigration is not merely economic, but also an emigration of hope, as young people leave in search of a life with dignity and security.

Another worrying issue is the number of students in schools. Today, compared to 20 years ago, the number of students graduating from high school is 50% lower, effectively halved. This phenomenon is linked to several factors, such as:

– Demographic factors:

The decline in fertility rates and the aging of the population are fundamental elements influencing the shrinking number of students. Family emigration has further deepened this phenomenon, especially by emptying rural areas and small towns.

– Economic factors:

Poverty, unemployment and low incomes make education less accessible and less attractive. For many families, long-term investment in education is no longer seen as a secure path to improving their lives.

– Social factors:

School dropout, lack of motivation and a poor perception of the role of education in professional success have become widespread. Schools often fail to create functional links with the social and economic realities of young people.

– Political and institutional factors:

Unstable education policies, insufficient investment and the lack of a long-term vision have negatively affected the quality and credibility of the education system.

Therefore, the implementation of policies to curb this phenomenon remains a challenge. These require coordinated and long-term measures: serious investment in quality and vocational education; wage increases and labor market formalization; support for youth entrepreneurship and innovation; a genuine fight against corruption and clientelism; housing policies and social support for young people, among others. European integration also takes on particular importance as a strategic opportunity, and in this regard the experience of countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007 is highly instructive.

Countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia, as well as the Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, often referred to as the “Baltic Tigers” – are today the strongest proof of what EU membership can deliver when accompanied by deep economic and institutional reforms. They adopted specific youth policies that were essential to their economic success, ensuring growth, convergence and opportunities for young people. Despite differences in outcomes among these countries, their success did not come automatically. It was achieved because they implemented profound reforms in the economy, justice and public administration, modernized education and vocational training systems, created an attractive climate for investment and entrepreneurship, and actively used EU funds for infrastructure, innovation and human capital.

This is where the difference lies: they did not simply become EU members, but prepared their countries thoroughly before accession. This is a direct lesson for Albania and the wider region. If we want to achieve similar results, it is not enough to open negotiation chapters. Each opened chapter represents a concrete obligation – to meet European standards in that area, to serve citizens better and to build capable institutions. That is where the real work lies.

Romania and Bulgaria, which joined the EU in 2007, also experienced clear positive effects on economic growth, but these effects became evident only about seven years after accession, due to delays in implementing reforms. In both countries, youth policies were weaker compared to earlier member states. What we must understand is that EU membership is a very large opportunity, but not a solution in itself, not a magic wand. It works only when accompanied by real, sustained reform.

/ Panorama

*Academician, Prof. Dr Anastas Angjeli is an economy expert, former MP and Finance Minister, founder and president of the Mediterranean University of Albania