Moldovans head to the polls on Sunday for a presidential election and an EU referendum that will mark a pivotal moment in the tug-of-war between Russia and the west over the future of the small, landlocked south-east European country of fewer than 3 million people

The pro-western president, Maia Sandu, hopes to advance her agenda by winning a second term and securing a “yes” in a referendum to affirm EU accession as a “irreversible” goal in the constitution.

Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Moldova has gravitated between pro-western and pro-Russian courses, but under Sandu the impoverished country has accelerated its push to escape Moscow’s orbit amid its war in neighbouring Ukraine.

Sandu, a former World Bank official, was elected president in November 2020, riding a wave of popularity as an anti-corruption reformer with a pro-European agenda.

Polls tip Sandu to win in the first round and suggest that up to 65% support joining the EU, though the sitting president could face a more difficult path if forced into a second-round runoff.

Sandu and her allies have warned that the election outcomes could be affected by a large-scale influence campaign of vote-buying and misinformation orchestrated Russia and its proxies.

In particular, they accuse the fugitive pro-Russian businessman Ilan Shor, a vocal opponent of EU membership, of running a destabilising campaign from Moscow.

Olga Ro?ca, a foreign policy adviser to Sandu, said: “Russia is pouring millions in dirty money to hijack our democratic processes. This isn’t just meddling – it’s full-blown interference aimed at destabilising our future. And it is alarming.”

At a press conference earlier this month, the national police chief, Viorel Cern?u?anu, accused Shor and Moscow of establishing a complex “mafia-style” voter-buying scheme and bribing 130,000 Moldovans – almost 10% of normal voter turnout – to vote against the referendum and in favour of Russia-friendly candidates in what he called an “unprecedented, direct attack”.

Officials in Moldova’s capital, Chi?in?u, also believe Moscow is behind a wave of pre-election vandalism attacks on government buildings and has plans to cause unrest in the country in the days after the elections.

Cern?u?anu said his officers had detained about 300 people who allegedly went to Russia to get training on how to break police cordons and create public chaos. Some got military training – including drone use, DIY explosives – in Bosnia and Serbia.

To combat Russian influence, authorities in Moldova said they had blocked dozens of Telegram channels and chatbots linked to a drive to pay voters to cast “no” ballots in the EU referendum.

In a major boost for Sandu, Moldova officially began EU accession negotiations in June. However, scepticism remains high about the country’s ability to implement the necessary democratic and judicial reforms in the near future.

While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked many in Chi?in?u, just a few hours’ drive from Ukraine’s Black Sea port city of Odesa, the Kremlin’s shadow still looms large over the country.

Moscow has 1,500 troops stationed in Transnistria, a region run by pro-Russian separatists who broke away from the control of Moldova’s government in a brief war in the 1990s.

The war in Ukraine has plunged Moldova into a deeper financial crisis, as tens of thousands of Ukrainian refugees have fled to the country, placing immense pressure on its healthcare system, public services, and infrastructure. Inflation has risen by as much as 40% as trade with Moscow and Kyiv sharply declined.

Moldova’s financial struggles have galvanised opponents of the country’s shift away from Russia. They are using the crisis as an opportunity to advocate for renewed ties with the Kremlin, framing Moldova’s hardships as a consequence of its western-leaning policies.

The candidate most likely to push Sandu into a possible second round is the Russia friendly Alexandr Stoianoglo, a soft spoken former prosecutor general who was dismissed by Sandu and is polling at 10%.

Speaking to the Guardian, he urged people to boycott the referendum or vote “no”, describing it as a “cynical” move to boost Sandu’s popularity.

Stoianoglo denied that he was working on behalf of Russia. But he declined to criticise the Kremlin for its invasion of Ukraine and called for improved relations with Moscow.

“The level of Russian interference in Moldova is highly exaggerated,” he added.

Meanwhile, Sandu’s allies consider Sunday’s vote to be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Moldova to make a decisive break from its Soviet past.

“We have a unique opportunity: Moldova has a pro-European president, parliament, and government. The EU is open to our membership, with all countries backing accession talks last June,” said Ro?ca, the president’s adviser. “Moldova’s survival as a democracy is on the line, and the geopolitical stakes are higher than ever.”

This is what we're up against

Bad actors spreading disinformation online to fuel intolerance.

Teams of lawyers from the rich and powerful trying to stop us publishing stories they don’t want you to see. 

Lobby groups with opaque funding who are determined to undermine facts about the climate emergency and other established science. 

Authoritarian states with no regard for the freedom of the press.

(Source: The Guardian)