Albanian Daily News had a conversation with the political analyst Augustin Palokaj, a Croatian citizen but he hastens to say "I am Albanian". As he told me during the talk, he works for "Jutarnji list”, the main newspaper in Croatia as correspondent in Brussels for more than 26 years, but he also reports for Koha company in Kosovo (Koha ditore, portal koha.net and KTV).

As part of the Albanian community in Croatia, I asked him about his links with the community which has preserved its identity but has also become fully integrated in the Croatian society since long time when they settled down in Croatia coming mostly from northern Albania. 

-Please what could you say about this significant endeavor to preserve the identity as Albanians and which is the 'secret' of such a characteristic feature of them?

Augustin Palokaj: Albanian community in Croatia is unique and diverse. Starting from Arbreshi in Zadar, who come hundreds of years ago from the Shkodra and Lezha region, to the recent wave of workers coming to Croatia from Kosovo and north Macedonia. I moved to Croatia from Kosovo to study at the end of nineties, as thousands of Kosovo Albanians did at that time. It was still when we were living in the same state, former Yugoslavia. Croatia was a preferred place for Albanians, both to prosper economically but also academically and politically. That’s why Kosovo Albanians use to say that relations with Croats are not only friendly but also brotherly. Many Kosovo Albanians defended Croatia during the homeland war that liberated country from Milosevic aggression. And Croatia traditionally helped Kosovo in many ways and its continuing to do that today. Links between Croatia and Albanians in former Yugoslavia are traditional. While relations with Albania are developing last few years. Being an isolated country after the WWII, Albania was mostly unknown for majority of Croats. But now by traveling, meeting people, links with Albania are becoming more and more important. Both countries joined NATO same day. They both share same orientation and have many similarities. But there is more potential for even better relations.    

-Croatia is among the key countries in the Balkans being an EU and NATO member country. Which are its projections toward the WB countries and how much is its role in supporting them to become like it- an EU member?

- Croatia was first and till now the only Western Balkan country to join European Union. With its unique experience Croatia is helping countries of the region in many ways on their path towards membership in EU.

First by sharing its experience from difficult accession process. Croatia continues to be “the newest EU member” even 11 years after it joined EU. So, it’s only Croatian experience that is valuable for other countries that are now in accession process. And Croatia is helping by sharing that.

On the other hand, Croatia is one of the strongest voices in EU for Western Balkan countries, promoting their future within the EU. Here Croatia takes care also about its own interest, particularly when it comes to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro. In case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia is strongest supporter within the EU but insists on equal treatment of Croats as constituent nation. In its approach towards Serbia, Croatia insists on fulfilment of criteria related to the rule of law, with particular interest in 7 processing war crimes, protection of minorities and finding the fate of over 1000 Croats still missing from the war. There were not problems in relations with Montenegro but there is now challenge since pro-Serbian and pro-Russian political forces in Montenegro increased their influence. But in general, Croatia is strong supporter of enlargement of EU towards the Western Balkans and considers it strategic interest.      

-A new bureaucratic administration is in Brussels after the EP election. Do you expect any change in its stance to overcome the stalemate of the dragging enlargement process with WB?

- There is more positive mood in EU for enlargement. But this has yet to be translated into concrete results. And results are not nice words like “future of Western Balkans belongs to EU”. Results are rather measured with opening and closing chapters in negotiation process. Just to remind that North Macedonia got recommendation from European Commission to start accession talks back in 2009. Now 15 years later those talks practically have not started yet. If we measure by the concrete results, we don’t see much progress considering the long time that has passed. Now I expect Albania to move fast, opening some chapters before the end of this year and speeding up next year. Montenegro, as a front runner, have best opportunity to move towards closing of accession talks in near future. But Podgorica has to resist pressure to become part of what is called “Serbian world” or “Russian world”. North Macedonia can move fast if it finds the way to adopt changes needed to unblock Bulgarian veto in EU. Progress of Bosnia-Herzegovina depends mostly on its internal political developments. Serbia has still to decide if it really wants to belong to EU family or it prefers to strengthen relation with Russia, China and Iran. Kosovo faces the problem of divisions within EU on recognition of its independence. But still there is much more positive attitude in EU today towards enlargement that it was several years ago. Prime Minister of Albania Edi Rama is right to say that we have to thank Vladimir Putin for this!

-Given the stance of major EU countries like France and Germany according to which engagement of Serbia even in military supply, modern one like the French super jets helps to align it with the West abandoning Russia. Do you think that they are living in a 'parallel reality' as Vucic declared bluntly to Macron that Serbs never abandon Russia? Is such a stance more geo-economic or geostrategic? Serb lithium, for example, is more often mentioned as vital for the West...

- Serbia is the most important country in the region for many reasons. By having capacity to destabilise many countries, it becomes at the same time factor of stability. Serbia is today key factor to keep stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina and norther part of Kosovo, while it is increasing its influence in Montenegro. There is suspicion that it does this in cooperation with Russia. It is strange that many countries of EU pretend that the behavior of Serbia is not a problem. But this is not only France and Germany. Republic of Albania is also having understanding for Serbia. Political elite in Belgrade are constantly saying that “relations with Albania are the best ever in history”. And this at the time when Kosovo is being attacked from groups entering from Serbia for which even EU said are terrorist attacks. Albania was also the biggest supporter of “Open Balkans” initiative that was launched by Serbia while Kosovo, Montenegro and even EU had reservations for that initiative. So, it’s not easy to conclude where the real geo-economic and geostrategic interests are. When it comes to purchasing modern arms by Serbia, this is both a political and economic issue. It does not pose real threat to neighboring countries for simple reasons: All neighbors of Serbia are members of NATO and those which are not, like Kosovo and Bosnia Herzegovina, have NATO forces protected them.       

-In your opinion can Serbia be considered as the main regional power of maintaining stability in WB when it's almost at war with Kosovo (Vucic's 7-point plan for North of Kosovo), pursues hostile policy towards Bosnia and Herzegovina, does not hide ambitions towards Montenegro as its interference along with that of Russia is more aggressive...?

- As I mentioned before, if you have destabilizing capacity, which Serbia definitely has, you become factor of stability. That does not necessary mean that you are good. But it's e fact. You are right to say that Serbia is almost at war with Kosovo. The attack in Banjska one year ago proves that threat from Serbia is real and not only hypothetical. Despite all the attempts from some countries in EU and NATO to help Serbia get out of the responsibility for Banjska, this event had big impact on many countries that understood how Belgrade is able to play double role, participating in dialog for normalization of relations, and support the groups that want to destabilize Kosovo and provoke conflict. One year after this, according to EU High representative “Terrorist attack”, perpetrators are free in Serbia and mostly considered as heroes. The plan for Kosovo that President of Serbia Aleksandar Vucic presented, shows that Serbia is not interested to move forward with normalization of relations with Kosovo but rather to maintain status quo at best. Partners of Serbia, including EU and NATO members, and neighbors such as Albania, have to be honest in relations with Serbia, to develop if they want best relations, but not to hesitate to warn Belgrade that actions to destabilase Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina and in political sense also Montenegro will not be tolerated. 

-How does Croatia as a country with authority in the EU considers such a stance?

- Croatia brings in EU its experience and knowledge of the region as added value. Its own experience from the Serbian aggression of the regime of Slobodan Milosevic, part of which were some of today's leaders of Serbia, including President Vucic, deputy Prime Minister Vulin and Interior Minister Dacic, serves to understand better situation in Serbia and Kosovo. That’s why Croatia is particularly interested in insisting that Serbia fulfils all requirements before it moves in EU integration. But there is no sense of fear in Croatia from Serbia. As a winner in the war Croatia is also member of EU and NATO. And it wants the best possible relations with Belgrade, but this is being difficult with the inflammatory rhetoric about Croatia coming constantly from Belgrade. Targets of this campaign are mostly Croats and Kosovo Albanians. Changing this rhetoric, followed by political will to prosecute war crimes and find the fate of missing persons, is for Croatia the most important in achieving good neighborly relations with Serbia. And Croatia is insisting in EU to keep this also as formal conditions in accession process.       

-Mr. Palokaj, do you think that the strategic partnership between Albania and Croatia is delivering or it has remained as an 'ornament' in archives?

- Strategic partnership between Albania and Croatia is excellent. It is expressed both in NATO but also in many regional initiatives such as “Adriatic charter” for military cooperation, regional cooperation council and many other. Economic cooperation can progress further. And also, cooperation in protecting Adriatic Sea that both countries share, together with Montenegro. I expect that now, when Albanian accession talks with EU enters dynamic phase, Croatian will provide its assistance even more with its experts and political support.  

- Maybe it's too much to ask but as a seasoned analyst which WB country could be potentially 'lucky' for membership to the Union according to merits? Does the option of 2030 stand?

- To be honest, I see Montenegro in EU realistically by 2030 but provided that it does not become satellite of Serbia and Russia. Montenegro made a big step forward with adoption by EU of the report for meeting interim benchmarks in rule of law chapter. This paves the way to start closing negotiation chapters. It can conclude accession talks in two years, to sign accession Treaty and be ready for membership by 2030. But internal political situation in Montenegro can be obstacle to achieve this. So, it's pretty much in the hands of Montenegro. As for the others, with political will in EU and necessary work by Albania and North Macedonia those two countries can now move fast as well. As for Kosovo, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina those countries have major political issues to resolve before they can really move forward. Serbia has to give up pretending that it wants EU while it moves further from it and refuses to implement agreement for path towards normalization of relations with Kosovo. Bosnia-Herzegovina is a victim of wrong international settlement that is today keeping country as e hostage of its own constitution, while Kosovo is being left behind due to not being recognized by 5 countries. Two years after Kosovo applied for EU membership its application was never taken into consideration at all by EU. My experience following accession process of EU with Croatia makes me careful to predict any timeline because many unpredictable obstacles can arise during the process.

-To conclude with the following question: How do you predict the US stance towards Western Balkans despite who comes to the White House in Washington after the presidential elections as almost all regional countries see the US as the strategic partner?

- The US have worked with EU for more than 30 years in the Western Balkans, from Croatia and Bosnia to Kosovo. It will continue to work together whoever wins in US elections. But dynamic of US engagement can change if Donald Trump wins. It’s not a secret that the majority in EU would prefer Harris to win. In that case there will be continuity in trans-Atlantic relations and cooperation. But EU is ready to work with any administration. Brussels has no illusions that it can achieve much in the Western Balkans without the US. But not all actors in the region see US as a strategic partner, particularly those linked to Russia. Strong partnership - I would rather say friendship - with US is try for Kosovo, Albania, to larger expend North Macedonia and parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina. There are many politicians in the region who are even on the black list of US. But I believe that US and EU will continue to work together in the region whoever wins in US presidential elections in November.