Dr. Yorgos Christidis, Professor at Department of Balkan, Slavic and Oriental Studies, University of Macedonia had a conversation with Albanian Daily News in an exclusive interview on the ‘after EP elections’ impact on Greece, the EU, the Western Balkans enlargement perspective and other issues, which have made the world situation very dangerous worse that after the end of the Second World War.

“As a whole it seems that the far-right has capitalized more on social discontent than the left. Clearly however, given the huge percentage of abstention from the elections, the majority of voters are simply turning their back on the political system,” said the professor, highlighting that the ruling party (New Democracy) remains dominant in Greece, but it is losing fast support; it got around 1 million votes less, compared with the national elections last year.

According to him, the outcome of November presidential elections in the US this year could have cardinal consequences for transatlantic relations because the last Trump administration made the Europeans feel deeply worried about Washington’s commitment to European security. “Certainly, a Trump victory in the presidential elections could add an element of unpredictability in transatlantic relations. The far-right in Europe has certain similarities with the Trump phenomenon, with its populism, nationalism and nativism. There are all signs of a national and international political order that is being tested by the deep-seated challenges of our time, produced by forces like globalization.”

Touching upon the perspective of the EU enlargement process towards WB the professor was of the opinion that there is justified concern that the last results in the EP elections will only strengthen skepticism towards the enlargement process, affecting it negatively. “The EU enlargement in the WB has never been a popular issue among the public in influential member-states of the EU, like France or Netherlands,” he said.

In the meantime, according to Professor Yorgos Christidis, there is a question-mark regarding the real motives of the winners of the last election, VMRO-DPMNE, in North Macedonia: does questioning the use of the constitutional name of the country, agreed at Prespa in 2018, is simply a populist move, directed at a domestic audience? “Or there is a hidden agenda, where the new government will remain loyal to a European path only at a declarative level while at the same time seeking to advance closer relations with Belgrade, Budapest and the East, with grave ramifications for the rule of law, inter-ethnic relations and relations with North Macedonia’s neighbors like Greece and Bulgaria? Only time will tell.”

The Professor thinks that in order to withstand Russian military superiority, Ukraine is in need of Western assistance and many argue that the West should intensify its involvement in Ukraine. “President Macron’s statements about eventual European boots on the ground in Ukraine are indicative in this regard. However, intensified Western involvement in Ukraine inherently carries with it the risk of a direct confrontation with Russia that is after all a nuclear power with an authoritarian leader! And that scares many ordinary people in Europe,” concluded Dr. Yorgos Christidis, Professor at Department of Balkan, Slavic and Oriental Studies, University of Macedonia in the following interview:      

Albanian Daily News: In Greece the ruling party leads but the far-right also has risen. Please could you shed some more light on what these elections mean for Greece and its people, who, according to data, did not show so much interest as the preliminary results reveal that the turnout was low with over 60 per cent of voters not casting their ballots?

Dr Yorgos Christidis, Professor of University of Macedonia: There are various conclusions that we can draw from the recent electoral result in Greece. The ruling party (New Democracy) remains dominant, but it is losing fast support; it got around 1 million votes less, compared with the national elections last year. The established opposition parties in the center-left and in the left have failed at large to capitalize on the growing disappointment of the electorate with the inability of the government to deal with pressing issues, like for example the cost of living that has significantly risen over the last years. As a whole it seems that the far-right has capitalized more on social discontent than the left. Clearly however, given the huge percentage of abstention from the elections, the majority of voters are simply turning their back on the political system. It is a trend that for years we see primarily in ex-communist countries, like Bulgaria. It remains to be seen, in the next national elections, whether large scale vote abstention has become, or not, a permanent feature of the political system.

- Professor, in your opinion which is the impact of the result of the EP elections and the shift to the right on the EU and Europe in general as well as on the relationship with the US, which is in the midst of a hectic electoral presidential campaign, the ongoing endless wars in Ukraine, Palestine and other parts of the world as well as on illegal immigration such a critical issue for Greece?

- Beginning with the presidential elections in the USA, in November this year, it is clear that their outcome could have cardinal consequences for transatlantic relations. The last Trump administration made the Europeans feel deeply worried about Washington’s commitment to European security. There is speculation about the intentions of a new Trump administration concerning Russia and the war in Ukraine. Certainly, a Trump victory in the presidential elections could add an element of unpredictability in transatlantic relations. The far-right in Europe has certain similarities with the Trump phenomenon, with its populism, nationalism and nativism. These are all signs of a national and international political order that is being tested by the deep-seated challenges of our time, produced by forces like globalization.

- According to you, how much and in what direction will the latest EP elections and the major shift to the right impact on the Western Balkans enlargement, which for the sake of truth is deadlocked? As many analysts say this shift means less enthusiasm for the reforms regarding enlargement among others… Do you think the ‘fatigue’ now on the part of the WB countries will increase and might affect the EU perspective in general?

- The WB’s enlargement has been affected by many issues during the last 2 decades. One could mention the need for deep seated reforms affecting the rule of law that political elites in the region have been unwilling to deal with or thorny bilateral issues, complicating relations within the region, but also between WB countries and member-states of the EU. At the same time, EU enlargement in the WB has never been a popular issue among the public in influential member-states of the EU, like France or Netherlands. There is justified concern that the last results in the EP elections will only strengthen skepticism towards the enlargement process, affecting it negatively. In any case, right now, only Montenegro realistically has any chances to join the EU by 2030.

- Please, how do you assess the situation between Kosovo and Serbia and the perspective of the EU mediated Pristina-Belgrade talks in a region vital to Europe? A few days ago the 30- anniversary of the bombardment by NATO forces of Milosevic army, which was engaged in a bloody genocidal extermination of Kosovo people was commemorated in Kosovo where massive grave are still found with victims of the Serb genocide…

- Unfortunately, no political leader in Serbia since Zoran Djindjic, who was tragically assassinated in 2003, sought to address Serbia’s responsibility in FSR of Yugoslavia’s violent dissolution and the bloody wars of the 1990s. Ideas that were prevalent in Serbian society in the 1990s during Milosevic’s rule, concerning a “Western conspiracy against Serbia” and the “victimization of the Serbian people”, have remained effectively unchallenged after 2000. Concerning Kosovo, there is an overwhelming sense among families of victims and missing people, both ethnic Albanian and Serb that justice hasn’t been done, that the truth of what happened during 1998-2000 hasn’t been established and that those people responsible for crimes committed haven’t been punished. In other words, justice, as a fundamental part of a process of reconciliation, hasn’t taken place yet. More generally, lack of trust between the two parties’ remains a deep-seated problem, undermining the EU mediated Pristina-Belgrade talks.

- In 2018, the dispute between Greece and North Macedonia was resolved with an agreement that the country should rename itself “Republic of North Macedonia”. This renaming came into effect in early 2019. But the row over North Macedonia’s name seems to have flared up again as new president Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova referred to her country as simply “Macedonia” during her inauguration on 17 May 2024 after the elections in that country. North Macedonia’s prime minister-elect, VMRO-DMPNE leader Hristijan Mickoski, further muddied the waters by calling the president’s stance “honourable”. Greece labeled the president’s swearing-in ceremony a “gross violation” of the Prespa Agreement. What is your opinion on this ‘unexpected’ event?

- Clearly, the refusal of the new President of North Macedonia, Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, to use the Constitutional name of the country during her inauguration ceremony was unhelpful, upsetting bilateral relations with Greece. More widely, there is a question mark regarding the real motives of the winners of the last election, VMRO-DPMNE, in North Macedonia: does questioning the use of the constitutional name of the country, agreed at Prespa in 2018, is simply a populist move, directed at a domestic audience? Or there is a hidden agenda, where the new government will remain loyal to a European path only at a declarative level while at the same time seeking to advance closer relations with Belgrade, Budapest and the East, with grave ramifications for the rule of law, inter-ethnic relations and relations with North Macedonia’s neighbors like Greece and Bulgaria? Only time will tell.

- As a follow up even Serbia’s Vucic says that he does not recognize Ohrid agreements with Kosovo adopted in the presence of EU and US officials some time ago. Professor, how do you assess such a trend when agreements and other international treaties are being disregarded?

- It is true that Vucic never signed the so-called “Agreement on the path of the normalization between Kosovo and Serbia” (Brussels Agreement) and its Annex (Ohrid Agreement) and that according to some, the absence of signatures constitutes a “weak point” of the agreement and its annex concerning their legal character. Nevertheless, the political gravity of the 2 agreements is clear and their implementation not only affects the credibility of Belgrade and Pristina but also their relationship with the EU. Because it is more than obvious that without a prior normalization of relations neither Pristina nor Belgrade can eventually join the Union. Agreements and treaties are a fundamental part of the system governing international relations that contribute to predictability and order. They have to be respected; their violation undermines bilateral relations and an order-based regional system!  

- To conclude Professor, what could you say on the unstoppable aggression of Russia against Ukraine and in your view which is the perspective of this war being fought in Ukraine with western weapons but with so many victims and almost ruined?

- Two and a half years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the dominant feeling is that we are at a crossroads. Most governments and analysts in West would agree that the outcome of the war in Ukraine could have cardinal effects for European (and not only) security. Any substantial vindication of the Russian war aims in Ukraine will undoubtedly embolden all those who argue that the West is in demise, the European project in terminal crisis, with some even advocating revisionist ideas about the status quo. And that could be very dangerous. At the same time, in order to withstand Russian military superiority, Ukraine is in need of Western assistance and many argue that the West should intensify its involvement in Ukraine. President Macron’s statements about eventual European boots on the ground in Ukraine are indicative in this regard. However, intensified Western involvement in Ukraine inherently carries with it the risk of a direct confrontation with Russia that is after all a nuclear power with an authoritarian leader! And that scares many ordinary people in Europe. / ADN