Bank of Albania

Economic Confidence Indicator Ticks Up

Albania's economic confidence indicator rose 0.3 points in September to 7.8 percentage points above the historic average, after up 1.8 points in August, the central bank said on Thursday.

The rise in September was driven by stronger confidence in construction, which rose 6.6 percentage points to 18 pp above the historic average, the central bank said in a monthly report.

The increase in the construction indicator was driven by more favorable appraisals of both current construction activity and current order books. In September 2026, construction-related businesses also reported higher expectations regarding future selling prices.

Consumer confidence also increased by 2.3 pp to 5 pp above average. Consumers reported more favourable assessments across all components of the indicator, including their current financial situation, expectations regarding the overall economic situation in the future, and assessments of both current and future major purchases. Expectations regarding future overall price developments were revised down.

All other sectors recorded drops: confidence in services fell by 2.4 pp to 5 pp above average; trade fell 1.8 pp to 10 pp above average; industry recorded a 3.8 pp decrease in confidence, to 3 pp above average.

The decline in the services indicator reflected less favorable assessments by services businesses of both their current business situation and the current level of demand. Employment expectations were revised down, while expectations regarding future selling prices were revised up.

Meanwhile, the decline in the trade indicator was driven by less favorable assessments of current business performance and downward revisions to employment expectations for the future. Expectations regarding future selling prices were also revised down.

Regarding the industry indicator, assessments of current order books and expectations regarding export order books remained broadly unchanged compared with the previous month. In September 2026, industry businesses reported more positive expectations regarding future employment, while their expectations for future selling prices declined.

In 2026 Q3, businesses in the construction sector reported an improvement in their financial situation and an improvement in capacity utilization rate compared with the previous quarter. In contrast, the remaining sectors recorded a deterioration in the corresponding indicators over the same period.

Capacity utilisation rates improved in construction (+1.2 percentage points) and deteriorated in industry (-0.6 percentage points), services (-0.8 percentage points), and trade (-0.9 percentage points). On the other hand, the financial situation improved in construction (+2.8 percentage points) and fell in services (-2.2 percentage points), industry (-5.9 percentage points), and higher in trade (-13 percentage points).

The Confidence Indicator (CI) is constructed for each sector and is calculated as the simple arithmetic average of seasonally adjusted balances of indicators that have the highest correlation with the reference series (the series of real data of the economy). The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is constructed based on the same balances used for constructing CIs for each sector (industry, construction, services, trade, and consumers), aiming to capture domestic economic activity. Before aggregating the ESI, these balances are standardized and weighted.