Fitch Ratings has made a positive forecast for the Albanian economy in 2021.

The international rating agency announced that it has improved by 1.5% the forecast for Albania’s economic growth for 2021, increasing it to 5.7%.

The forecast was made public by the Minister of Finance and Economy, Anila Denaj, who states that "the agency predicts that most of the economic recovery is forecasted to come from the reconstruction after the earthquake, the rapid progress of Covid-19 vaccination, the gradual decline of unemployment, increase of private consumption, exports, incomes as well as boost of capital investments.”

This assessment, published in the latest risk report of Albania for the second half of 2021 is in line with that of February of the same year. "We have revised the forecast of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth 2021 for Albania to 5.7%, from 4.3% before. Much of the recovery will be from gross fixed capital formation due to post-earthquake reconstruction efforts. Meanwhile, we expect that the continued rapid progress of Covid-19 vaccination in Albania will support a sustained recovery of private consumption, while an improvement in tax collection in line with the economic recovery supports the continued increase in government spending," Fitch Ratings said in the report.

Fitch also predicts that exports of goods will increase during the year as demand from Europe improves, although exports of services will need more to recover as a result of ongoing outages by Covid-19. Meanwhile, a gradual decline in unemployment will cause a moderate increase in private consumption.

According to the report, public investments are expected to be a relatively strong point for growth this year, as a result of funding for delayed projects and reconstruction activities related to the November 2019 earthquake.

Among other international institutions, the International Monetary Fund is less optimistic. In its April economic outlook report, the IMF revised downwards its expectations for the country's economic growth to 5%, from 6.1% in the October assessment. In 2022, the country is expected to grow by 4%, the IMF has said.

On the other hand, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Albania's economy to grow by 4.5% this year. The EBRD calculated that Albania's economy will reach the level of 2019 this year, and will even exceed it by 1% this year, but will still grow at lower rates than the Western Balkans average of 5.1%.