The war in Iran has transformed in a matter of weeks from a regional conflict into a crisis with global consequences. The escalation of tensions in the Persian Gulf has set international energy markets in motion, increased concerns about global economic stability, and brought the strategic importance of energy back to the center of the geopolitical debate. In a world characterized by deep economic interdependencies and an energy system still heavily reliant on fossil fuels, any crisis in the Middle East has the potential to quickly turn into a global upheaval.

At the center of this crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and constitutes one of the most important nodes of the world economy. About a fifth of global oil consumption passes through this route, while a significant portion of the liquefied natural gas exported from the Gulf countries follows the same trajectory. For this reason, the Strait of Hormuz is not just a sea passage, but a vital artery of the global energy system. Any destabilization in this area has immediate consequences for international markets and the expectations of economic actors.

Attacks on commercial ships and military activity in the region have led many shipping and insurance companies to review their operations in the Persian Gulf. As a result, tanker traffic has been reduced and transportation costs have increased, adding further pressure on international energy prices. Markets often react not only to concrete developments, but also to the perception of risk. In this sense, the mere possibility of a supply disruption is enough to generate instability in oil prices.

At the same time, this crisis comes at a moment when the international order is undergoing a new phase of transformation. Rivalries among major powers have intensified, global supply chains have become more fragile, and energy markets are now influenced by a combination of economic, strategic, and political factors. In this context, developments in the Persian Gulf represent not only a regional crisis but also a test of how the global economy and international institutions respond to major geopolitical shocks. For this reason, the response of international actors and coordination among the world’s major economies take on particular importance.

EMERGENCY G7 COORDINATION

On March 11, a virtual meeting of the G7 countries was convened under the French Presidency to analyze the global consequences of the conflict, its impact on energy markets, and to coordinate a common response aimed at stabilizing the situation.

The joint statement emphasized the importance of international cooperation to guarantee global energy supplies and protect freedom of navigation in the region. One of the most important decisions was support for the release of strategic oil reserves by the International Energy Agency, up to 400 million barrels, an intervention intended to calm markets and temporarily compensate for supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf. This step reflects concerns that the crisis could threaten the energy reserves of major countries.

This forum represents the world’s most industrialized economies and has historically played an important role in managing international economic and energy crises. International coordination in the field of energy has deep historical roots. After the 1973 crisis, when the Arab countries’ embargo caused a major economic shock in the West, industrialized countries began building joint mechanisms for managing energy crises. One of the main outcomes was the creation of the International Energy Agency in 1974, an institution that coordinates strategic energy reserves and cooperation among industrialized economies in response to periodic crises (such as the crisis of 1991, the crisis resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war, and the imposition of a price ceiling on Russian oil exports).

In this sense, the response to the current crisis is part of a broader tradition of international cooperation in managing global energy shocks.

INFLATION AND ECONOMIC PRESSURE

The economic consequences of the conflict extend far beyond the energy market. Rising oil prices usually spread rapidly throughout the global economy because energy remains a fundamental input for transportation, industrial production, and the functioning of international supply chains.

At a time when many economies are still dealing with the consequences of the crises of recent years, a new energy shock could translate into another wave of global inflation. Central banks in many countries remain engaged in efforts to stabilize prices and control inflation following the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. A new increase in energy costs could make this process even more difficult, placing economies before a dilemma between price stability and maintaining the pace of economic growth. The risk of external inflation for our country, if the crisis continues, must therefore be taken into account.

GEOPOLITICAL COMPETITION FOR ENERGY

The current crisis has once again brought the geopolitical dimension of energy to the forefront. Energy is not only an economic resource that fuels global industry and transport but also an important instrument of power in international relations. The history of world politics shows that control over energy resources and their transport corridors has often been closely linked to the strategic influence of states.

In this context, Iran’s ability to threaten maritime transport in the Strait of Hormuz clearly shows how control over a strategic corridor can be transformed into an instrument of geopolitical pressure. At the same time, the crisis is creating opportunities for other energy exporters to benefit from rising prices and increased demand for alternative supplies. The United States, thanks to the shale oil and gas revolution of the past decade, has become one of the world’s leading energy producers. In a situation where supplies from the Persian Gulf become more uncertain, American production could take on even greater importance for the stability of international markets.

The Russian Federation also remains one of the largest energy exporters and could benefit from higher oil prices. Although Moscow faces extensive sanctions from the West, global energy markets remain interconnected, and any increase in global prices has the potential to raise revenues from Russian energy exports.

This crisis also highlights the increasingly important role of major energy-consuming powers. China, the world’s largest energy importer, is closely monitoring developments in the Persian Gulf. The stability of this region is essential for the energy security of the Chinese economy, which relies heavily on oil imports from the Middle East.

Beyond the competition between energy exporters and consumers, the current crisis also reflects a broader transformation in energy geopolitics. In a world where the transition to renewable energy is underway but far from complete, fossil fuels continue to play a central role in international strategic balances. This means that tensions in producing regions such as the Middle East have the potential to affect not only energy markets but also political and strategic relations among major powers.

Therefore, if tensions in the Persian Gulf continue, the world could face one of the most serious energy crises in recent decades. If the situation stabilizes, this crisis may serve as a warning about the structural weaknesses of the global energy system.

In any case, recent developments show that in the 21st-century global economy, energy, economics, and geopolitics remain deeply intertwined and require strong international coordination. / Panorama

*Academician, Prof. Dr Anastas Angjeli is economy expert, former Economy Minister and MP, founder and president of the Mediterranean University of Albania