In the long-term horizon, after 2040, debt service figures begin to shrink significantly

Debt Falling, Interest Payments Increasing

The stock of public debt in relation to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) marked a historic decrease, marking only 48.79% of GDP in the first quarter of the year, but on the other hand, the state treasury is entering a very intensive phase of repayment of principal and interest.

Official data from the Ministry of Finance show that this year, debt service requires a total of Lek 248 billion or Euro 2.5 billion, of which Lek 27 billion (Euro 271 million) was repaid in the first quarter, and the remaining Lek 221 billion is expected to be repaid by the end of the year. The data show that repayments of principal and interest on the debt this year are expected to be 71% higher than last year, when Euro 1.5 billion were paid for this item.

Official data from the Ministry of Finance shows that the year 2027 will be the most critical period for the state treasury, marking a record peak in total payments with a value of Lek 305,623 million (about Euro 3.05 billion). This amount represents the most difficult moment of disbursing funds to creditors, where only the repayment of the principal, i.e. the borrowed base capital, amounts to Lek 259,462 million (about Euro 2.59 billion), while the remaining part of Lek 46,162 million (about Euro 461 million) will go exclusively to cover interests and bank commissions.

Domestic debt holds the main weight of short-term service, which proves the government's high dependence on banks and domestic investors. Specifically, for 2027, liabilities to domestic lenders are projected to be around Lek 196,813 million (around Euro 1.96 billion), creating a large need for liquidity in the local currency. However, the medium-term projections reflected in the Ministry of Finance data reveal significant financial fluctuations that come mainly from external debt, depending on the maturity dates of international instruments.

Official data show that from April of this year until the end of 2030, the total cost for interests and commissions alone is projected to reach around Lek 168,174 million (around Euro 1.68 billion).