US–Iran conflict, energy and conflicts, impact of conflicts on energy, Roberto Raimondi Cagliari, Roberto Raimondi Perugia, Roberto Raimondi Sardinia

Tensions between the United States and Iran do not merely redefine the geopolitical balance of the Middle East; they directly affect the stability of global energy markets. At the core of this dynamic lies the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s key energy chokepoints, through which approximately 20% of global oil and gas passes.

When this strategic passage becomes unstable, the entire energy system enters a state of vulnerability. Even a partial disruption of flows is enough to trigger price hikes, market volatility, and stress on supply chains.

ASIA: THE TRUE EPICENTRE OF IMPACT

The most significant effects of the crisis are felt in Asia. The main importing countries—China, India, Japan, and South Korea—depend heavily on oil transiting through Hormuz. This exposure makes the region particularly sensitive to the dynamics of the conflict.

A key finding from ISPI’s analysis, “From Iran to the World: 6 Charts on the Economic Impact of the War,” is that only a minimal share of oil passing through the Strait is destined for Europe and the United States, while the vast majority flows toward Asian markets. This means the impact of the crisis is highly asymmetrical.

ENERGY PRICES AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES

Destabilisation of the Strait immediately translates into rising oil and gas prices. Even in the early stages of the conflict, markets recorded significant increases, underscoring the centrality of this region to the global economy.

For Asian economies, this entails: higher industrial production costs, inflationary pressure, worsening trade balances.

Energy security thus becomes a decisive factor for economic growth. According to energy security analyses by the International Energy Agency, stable supply is essential to sustain development and competitiveness in importing countries.

REDEFINING ENERGY STRATEGIES

The US–Iran crisis is accelerating an ongoing trend: the diversification of energy sources. Asian countries are seeking alternatives to Middle Eastern oil, strengthening relationships with other suppliers and investing in renewable and nuclear energy.

However, in the short term, this dependency remains structural. Infrastructure constraints, long-term contracts, and growing demand make a rapid replacement of supplies difficult.

SOCIAL IMPACTS AND DOMESTIC STABILITY

Rising energy prices have a direct impact on daily life. Higher costs for fuel and energy affect transport, consumer goods, and essential services. In countries with less developed welfare systems, this can lead to social tensions and a loss of purchasing power.

Energy security, therefore, becomes a social as well as an economic issue. Ensuring access to energy at sustainable costs is fundamental for domestic stability.

AN INCREASINGLY FRAGILE GLOBAL BALANCE

The US–Iran crisis demonstrates how modern conflicts have systemic effects. Energy, geopolitics, and economics are now deeply interconnected, and local tensions produce global consequences.

The Asian case highlights this dynamic with particular clarity: regions geographically distant from the conflict can be the most exposed to its effects. In this scenario, energy security remains one of the main factors shaping economic balance and international stability.