The latest projections by the Vienna Institute for International Studies (WIIW) on Albania’s integration into the European Union have revealed a large time gap between economic growth and social well-being in our country.

The data suggest that, in the most optimistic scenario, Albania could need about three decades to reach the EU average of GDP per capita. However, the fight against poverty seems to belong to another century, as it has taken more than 100 years. This shows that the increase in per capita income is not translating into a better life for the poorest segments of the population.

Convergence of per capita income with that of the EU is expected to occur faster, as GDP is a simple average that is inflated by the good performance of a few specific sectors. For example, economic growth can be stimulated by the construction or energy sector, but if a pensioner or a family in the countryside continues to have the same income, the poverty level remains unchanged. In fact, GDP statistics seem to be growing rapidly due to the negative effect of population contraction.

As long as wealth in Albania remains concentrated at the top of a pyramid of people, it is impossible for it to influence the improvement of the living conditions of other strata, especially the poorest ones.

On the other hand, this report demonstrates a regional divide: the economy of the center of the country and the coastal areas are approaching the EU level faster, while rural areas and peripheral cities remain trapped in a cycle of continuous poverty.

The analysis shows that, although economic growth can be accelerated through trade integration, the distribution of welfare and the reduction of poverty are much slower structural processes. Even in the most optimistic scenario of full membership, Albania would need over 100 years to eliminate the poverty gap with EU countries.

Without radical reforms in the pension system, the minimum wage, and policies to close extreme inequality, GDP growth will serve only as a statistical facade. Social convergence risks remaining an impossible mission, leaving behind entire generations waiting for a well-being that, on paper, seems close, but in reality remains unattainable.